by Invoice McBride
NOTE: The tables for lively listings, new listings and closed gross sales all embrace a comparability to September 2019 for every native market (some 2019 knowledge will not be obtainable).
That is the primary have a look at a number of early reporting native markets in September. I’m monitoring over 40 native housing markets within the US. A number of the 40 markets are states, and a few are metropolitan areas. I’ll replace these tables all through the month as further knowledge is launched.
Closed gross sales in September had been largely for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage charges averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
Energetic Stock in September
Here’s a abstract of lively listings for these early reporting housing markets.
Stock was up 35.3% year-over-year. Final month stock in these markets was up 37.4% YoY. A key for home costs would be the degree of stock later this 12 months.
Stock is down in most of those areas in comparison with the identical month in 2019. Stock in Denver and Nashville is up in comparison with September 2019.
There are important regional variations for stock, with sharp will increase within the South and Southeast (particularly in Florida and Texas). These areas haven’t reported but for September.
Notes for all tables:
- New additions to desk in BOLD.
New Listings in September
And here’s a desk for brand spanking new listings in September (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings had been up 10.9% year-over-year.
Final month, new listings in these markets had been up 9.5% year-over-year.
New listings at the moment are up year-over-year, however nonetheless at traditionally low ranges. New listings in all of those areas are down in comparison with September 2019 exercise.
Closed Gross sales in September
And a desk of September gross sales.
In September, gross sales in these markets had been unchanged YoY. Final month, in August, these identical markets had been down 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Necessary: There have been the identical variety of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change within the headline SA knowledge shall be much like the NSA knowledge. Final month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 in comparison with August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted gross sales had been down lower than NSA gross sales.
Gross sales in all of those markets are down considerably in comparison with September 2019.
This graph exhibits current house gross sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Fee (SAAR) foundation. Final 12 months, the NAR reported gross sales in September 2023 at 3.98 million SAAR.
This early knowledge means that the September current house gross sales report will present a small year-over-year decline. If gross sales are up year-over-year, this would be the first year-over-year achieve since September 2021. In fact, gross sales will nonetheless be traditionally low.
This was simply a number of early reporting markets. Many extra native markets to return!
