r.j. sigmund on Covid
just a few days in the past i learn an article on a college web site that Covid exercise was ‘showing signs of slowing’, in order that’s what i anticipated to seek out when i checked the info this morning…”rising much less quickly” may need been a extra descriptive evaluation…
among the many CDC’s “early indicators“, “test positivity”, or the proportion of checks for Covid that have been constructive, rose to 18.1% in the course of the week ending August tenth, up from 17.6% in the course of the week ending August third, and up from 3.4% eleven weeks in the past…that’s a two and a half 12 months excessive, and the second highest take a look at positivity degree since Covid testing started… on the identical time, Covid circumstances accounted for two.4% of hospital emergency room sufferers, down from a revised 2.5% of emergency sufferers in the course of the week ending August third, however Covid emergency room visits for that week had first been reported at 2.3% per week in the past, in order that was revised 0.2% increased….Covid circumstances had been accounting for simply 0.4% of hospital emergency room sufferers in the course of the illness lull this spring…in the meantime, in knowledge that’s two weeks older, the CDC reviews that the Covid hospitalization price rose to three.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in the course of the week ending July twenty seventh, up from an downwardly revised 3.2 per 100,000 the prior week, and up from 1.1 per 100,000 in the course of the week ending Could eleventh…the Covid hospitalization price for the week ending July twentieth had been reported at 3.3 per 100,000 final week, in order that was revised decrease..
in a metric that’s catching up fairly than slowing down, the CDC now reviews that Covid accounted for 1.9% of all US deaths in the course of the week ending August tenth, after the 1.5% determine they reported for deaths for the week ending August third was revised as much as 1.6%…5 weeks earlier, Covid deaths have been accounting for 0.8% of all US deaths, so the proportion of Covid deaths has greater than doubled over the previous month…in the meantime, the CDC’s confirmed Covid deaths graph, which lags present knowledge by 3 weeks, exhibits there have been 566 US deaths from Covid in the course of the week ending July twentieth, up from an upwardly revised 476 deaths in the course of the week ending July thirteenth, and up from an upwardly revised 446 US Covid deaths in the course of the week ending July sixth…that lagging weekly deaths metric is now the very best it’s been since April sixth…
the CDC’s nationwide studying for viral exercise in wastewater stays VERY HIGH, however the numerical metric they generate for the viral exercise degree has turned decrease in two areas… their nationwide viral exercise graph nonetheless exhibits 15 consecutive will increase, with the studying for the week ending August tenth now at 8.80, up from a downwardly revised 8.31 throughout the week ending August third, and up from 1.36 in the course of the week ending Could 4th, which i imagine they have been calling MINIMAL on the time….the CDC’s viral exercise degree metric for the West rose from 13.26 for the week ending August third to 14.02 for the week ending August tenth, however their wastewater metric for the South fell from 11.75 for the week ending August third to 11.52 for the week ending August tenth, and their metric for the Midwest fell from 7.02 for the week ending August third to six.38 for the week ending August tenth, whereas their metric for the Northeast rose from 5.35 for the week ending August third to six.10 for the week ending August tenth …once more, i don’t know what these numbers imply, however i don’t suppose that they are often in contrast to one another, as a result of a years value of historic knowledge for every area is utilized in creating these metrics, which supplies every area’s metric a distinct foundation…furthermore, these metrics are recalculated each six months to incorporate new ‘historic” knowledge…
then again, Biobot reviews the precise focus of the Covid virus in US sewer water, so all of their metrics have the identical foundation…for this week, they reported wastewater concentrations of the Covid virus have been rising nationally and in all US areas besides the South, the place there was a modest downtick…as normal, we’ll simply copy and paste the Covid related paragraphs from this week’s Biobot report beneath; as you possibly can see, they present the very best wastewater concentrations of the Covid virus within the Midwest and the Northeast, that are the 2 lowest in keeping with the CDC’s wastewater metric…if it is advisable to preserve rating, go along with Biobot..
- Biobot’s nationwide wastewater community confirmed very low nationwide concentrations of influenza A & B and RSV throughout week 32, whereas SARS-CoV-2 concentrations continued to extend. We’re seeing early warning indicators that the RSV season is approaching, with concentrations within the Midwest starting to extend for the primary time in months. Nationally, main medical metrics remained low for influenza and RSV in week 31, whereas metrics for COVID-19 remained elevated.
- Wastewater knowledge present that COVID-19 exercise and group viral load elevated throughout week 32. The nationwide common SARS-CoV-2 wastewater focus is now 728 copies per mL.
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations held regular within the South throughout week 32, at 682 copies per mL. Georgia and Tennessee are the 2 Southern states in COVID-NET. Hospitalization charges stay elevated in each states, growing in Tennessee in week 31. Charges may be lowering in Georgia, nevertheless, different current decreases have been corrected to will increase, so it’s unclear what the precise development within the state is.
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations elevated within the Midwest throughout week 32 at 857 copies per mL. Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio are Midwestern states in COVID-NET. In week 31, hospitalization charges decreased in all three states.
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations elevated within the Northeast throughout week 32 at 808 copies per mL. Connecticut, Maryland, and New York are Northeastern states in COVID-NET. In week 31, hospitalization charges decreased in Maryland and held regular in Connecticut and New York.
- Throughout week 32, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations elevated within the West at 613 copies per mL. California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, and Utah are Western states in COVID-NET. In week 31, hospitalization charges decreased in Colorado, New Mexico, and Oregon, held regular in California, and elevated in Utah.
this was the week that the CDC up to date it’s variant proportions web page, however at first look there doesn’t appear to be something new there; these strains that arose and unfold quickly over the previous few months have change into extra dominant, whereas these variants that have been dominant beforehand, and through this previous winter’s surge, have continued to recede….
Omicron KP.3.1.1, which was first listed individually on the CDC’s web page a month in the past and which turned the most typical variant circulating two weeks in the past, continued to increase its presence, now accounting for 36.8% of the virus samples sequenced in the course of the August 4th to August seventeenth interval, up from 22.4% of the nationwide whole in the course of the July twenty first to August third interval, and up from 12.7% of the whole in the course of the interval earlier than that…the KP.3.1.1 variant is an offspring of KP.3, and has a change within the spike protein that enhances its transmissibility and immune evasion capabilities, therefore it has an efficient copy quantity (Rₑ) that’s considerably increased than that of any of the opposite variants at present circulating…
in the meantime, the KP.3 variant, which is the dad or mum of the KP.3.1.1 pressure and is a descendant of JN.1.11.1, continues to be the 2nd commonest Covid mutant circulating, accounting for 16.8% of US Covid infections in the course of the two week interval ending August seventeenth, down from a downwardly revised 21.0% share of the whole in the course of the July twenty first to August third interval, and down from 22.7% of the whole in the course of the two week interval earlier than that…
the KP.2.3 variant, an offspring of the KP.2 variant that the brand new vaccine is being designed to focus on, is again to being the third commonest mutation circulating, at 14.4% of the virus samples sequenced in the course of the August 4th to August seventeenth interval, down from 16.0% of the nationwide whole in the course of the July twenty first to August third interval, and down from 16.4% of the whole in the course of the interval earlier than that…i haven’t seen any specifics on the KP.2.3 variant, however because it has largely displaced its KP.2 dad or mum (which now accounts for 3.2% of the nationwide whole), if appears doubtless its mutation additionally enhances it’s transmissibility and immune evasion capabilities, a lot as is the case with the mutation of KP.3.1.1…
all three of these most dominant variants, in addition to others within the “KP” household of Omicron mutants (which is most of them on the market now), have substitutions on virus spike protein that embrace them in what are known as the FLiRT variants (distinguished by a substitution of F for L at place 456 and R for T at place 346 on the spike protein); these substitutions get rid of binding websites for antibodies on that protein that may in any other case neutralize the Covid virus, which explains why they’re working rampant on us now….
in the meantime, the LB.1 variant, a direct descendant of the initially dominant JN.1, is now the 4th commonest Covid variant on the market, accounting for 14.1% of US Covid infections in the course of the August 4th to August seventeenth interval, down from an upwardly revised 16.6% share of the whole in the course of the July twenty first to August third interval, and in addition down from 16.1% of the whole in the course of the two week interval earlier than that…the LB.1 variant is “similar to the FLiRT variants but has an additional mutation (S:S31del)” …
lastly, the LP.1 variant, which is an offspring of KP.1.1.3, continues to be hanging on because the fifth commonest variant circulating, accounting for 4.1% of US Covid infections in the course of the two week interval ending August seventeenth, up from a downwardly revised 3.8% share of the whole in the course of the July twenty first to August third interval, and up from 2.6% of the whole in the course of the two week interval earlier than that…as a descendant of KP.1.1.3, it additionally has the FLiRT mutations, and apparently extra, to differentiate it from it from its dad or mum and grandparent, that are each nonetheless circulating as effectively..
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