New polling confirmed Vice President Kamala Harris with a widening margin over former President Donald Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos ballot printed Thursday.
It discovered Harris leads Trump 45% to 41%. Amongst registered voters, the 4 percentage-point lead was extra important than the 1-point lead Harris had over Trump within the outfit’s final ballot in July. The ballot had a 2% margin of error.
Over in polling guru Nate Sliver’s newest fashions, Harris didn’t fare as properly.
“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3,” Silver wrote within the Silver Bulletin. “There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading.”
Silver’s mannequin accounts for Harris’ conference bounce.
“The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption,” he wrote. “But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”
The polling adjustments mirror an election contest that has been roiled by an assassination try towards Trump and President Biden’s determination to drop out and endorse Harris.
