NEWFIELDS, N.H. — A brand new ballot in New Hampshire, house to the one aggressive gubernatorial election this yr, signifies a detailed race within the battle to succeed widespread Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.
And the outcomes of the survey and one other ballot launched within the Granite State earlier within the week counsel former President Trump’s standing in New Hampshire within the White Home race could also be a drag on down-ballot Republicans.
Based on a College of New Hampshire Survey Middle ballot launched Thursday, Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig holds a razor-thin 47%-46% edge over former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican nominee.
A ballot launched earlier this week from the Saint Anselm School Survey Middle additionally indicated a coin-flip race, with Ayotte holding a slight edge.
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Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in New Hampshire, speaks with voters on the Hampton Seashore Seafood Competition Sept. 7, 2024. (Kelly Ayotte marketing campaign)
Ayotte, because of her six years within the Senate and her tenure as a state lawyer normal earlier than her service on Capitol Hill, has far larger title identification than Craig and has a large marketing campaign money benefit over her rival.
However the brand new polls counsel Trump could also be doing Ayotte no favors.
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“Kelly’s very popular, but I do think Trump’s a burden,” longtime Granite State-based GOP marketing consultant and former state lawyer normal Tom Rath instructed Fox Information.
Trump got here inside roughly 3,000 votes of carrying New Hampshire in his 2016 presidential election victory. However 4 years in the past, President Biden topped Trump by over seven factors in New Hampshire.
Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, delivers remarks alongside supporters, marketing campaign employees and members of the family throughout his major night time rally on the Sheraton Jan. 23, 2024, in Nashua, N.H. (Alex Wong/Getty Photographs)
The UNH ballot signifies Trump is down by 11 factors to Vice President Kamala Harris. And the Saint Anselm School survey factors to an higher single-digit lead for Harris in New Hampshire.
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“If this were a straight-up election without the presidential race on it, I think Kelly would have a lead outside the margin of error,” argued Rath, who stayed unaffiliated within the 2024 Republican presidential major race and served as a prime adviser to Trump rival and then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich within the 2016 GOP nomination battle.
A New Hampshire-based Republican strategist instructed Fox Information “Trump is definitely an anchor on Kelly and her campaign right now, and she’s the flagship.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, arrives to talk throughout a marketing campaign cease on the Throwback Brewery in North Hampton, N.H., Sept. 4, 2024. (AP Photograph/Jacquelyn Martin)
The strategist, who requested to stay nameless to talk extra freely, famous that Ayotte’s “status as a flagship means everybody’s taking shots at her. There’s not a lot of evidence of activity in New Hampshire by the Trump campaign, so it’s really Kelly versus the world right now.”
And one other Granite State-based Republican marketing consultant additionally pointed to meager involvement and sources in New Hampshire coming from some prime nationwide Republican teams.
“Kelly’s out fighting this thing all by herself. That’s not a good place to be. You need other people drawing fire,” stated the marketing consultant, who additionally requested for anonymity. “[Trump’s] not focusing on New Hampshire. His bad poll numbers and lack of enthusiasm is dragging the whole ticket down.”
Craig, who served three two-year phrases steering the Granite State’s largest metropolis, narrowly topped Cinde Warmington, the one Democrat on the state’s five-member Government Council, to seize their occasion’s nomination in final week’s state major.
Ayotte, a former state lawyer normal earlier than successful election to the Senate in 2010, soundly defeated former New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
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Sununu, who determined towards operating for re-election this yr after successful 4 straight two-year phrases as New Hampshire governor (New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the one states within the nation that elect governors each two years), didn’t look like affected by Trump’s higher single digit defeat in New Hampshire 4 years in the past.
Sununu ended up successful re-election in a landslide in 2020, thanks partly to Granite Staters’ custom of ticket splitting.
The governor endorsed Ayotte earlier this summer season as she ran for the nomination. Ayotte has repeatedly praised Sununu and pledged to additional his agenda if elected in November.
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire is interviewed by Fox Information Digital July 11, 2024, in Newfields, N.H. (Fox Information/Paul Steinhauser)
Ayotte was a rising star within the Republican Get together in 2016 with a burgeoning profile on nationwide safety as she was operating for re-election.
However simply forward of the 2016 election, she withdrew her assist for Trump over the “Access Hollywood” controversy, when Trump made crude feedback about grabbing girls with out their consent.
“I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women,” Ayotte stated on the time.
Ayotte misplaced re-election by a razor-thin margin of simply over 1,000 votes to then-Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.
Ayotte stayed impartial in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential major, however she endorsed Trump in early March, proper after he clinched the GOP nomination.
Rath, pointing to Ayotte’s backing of Trump, stated “her position, which was to embrace him and not create space, I understand why she’s made it, and you take the consequences of it … if that’s the top of the ticket, and you’re the next level down, it’s really hard to get around that problem in a race.”
Additionally working towards Ayotte is an avalanche of detrimental adverts which were operating towards her all summer season, courtesy of Democratic teams.
The assaults have helped to lift Ayotte’s detrimental rankings in each the UNH Survey Middle and Saint Anselm School polls.
