Republicans need to flip this final aggressive South Texas senate seat

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Texas State Sen. Morgan LaMantia of South Padre Island received her seat in 2022 by simply 659 votes — a margin so shut that her opponent requested for a recount.

The Democrat defeated Republican Adam Hinojosa, an proprietor of a number of small companies, to serve the remainder of retired Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr’s unfinished time period. Two years later, LaMantia is operating to serve for a full time period — and Hinojosa is again for a rematch in what’s the single aggressive race within the deeply conservative Texas state senate.

This 12 months, there are completely different political dynamics, such because the race being in a presidential 12 months, which is anticipated to spice up voter turnout. Democrats are hoping for a surge of enthusiasm for voters seeking to assist Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republicans are hoping to construct on inroads they’ve made in recent times profitable over Latino voters to hold Hinojosa excessive.

In 2021, Home District 27 was redrawn by the Legislature to make it extra aggressive for the GOP. President Joe Biden would have received the world by 4.6 share factors over Donald Trump, in comparison with 15.7 share factors earlier than it was redrawn.

“The dynamics of the district have changed,” mentioned Mark Kaswan, a College of Texas Rio Grande Valley political science affiliate professor.

The district, particularly Brownsville, has seen financial and inhabitants progress due to SpaceX and the LNG growth. Kaswan added that, in concept, urbanization would almost certainly assist state Democrats. Nonetheless, the state GOP has logged historic features in South Texas within the final couple of elections, in addition to in city areas, with Trump’s rising assist amongst Latinos.

The Texas Senate presently has 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats — so the race is not going to change the political stability. However a Hinojosa victory can be a serious symbolic victory for Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has an iron grip on the chamber, and to different hard-line conservatives hoping to push the Legislature even additional to the correct.

In 2022, Republicans have been banking on the purple wave to assist them make some features within the long-blue area. Regardless of that effort largely falling flat, LaMantia mentioned she realized to not take the seat with no consideration.

“Someone once told me that you either run unopposed or you run scared,” LaMantia mentioned. “We’re not slowing down. We’re conserving our foot on the gasoline, and I am not taking with no consideration or leaving something on the desk.”

Hinojosa raised a powerful haul of greater than $1 million within the final submitting interval, together with about $9,500 from Gov. Greg Abbott. However LaMantia’s household — which owns a beer distribution enterprise — has loaned her marketing campaign greater than $4 million this cycle, together with $2.5 million final month alone, permitting her to vastly outspend Hinojosa, in line with their marketing campaign finance studies.

Hinojosa didn’t reply to a number of requests for an interview however informed a neighborhood information station that voters ought to again him as a result of he’s Christian and a Republican, which makes him a greater consultant of the district’s values.

“We’ve got a senator now who’s got a voting record. So I just encourage everybody to review that and know which of us better represents your South Texas values.” Hinojosa informed CBS 4 within the Rio Grande Valley.

Hinojosa has additionally attacked LaMantia’s voting document in TV adverts and at marketing campaign occasions; a piece on his marketing campaign web site particulars how LaMantia voted on some main laws final 12 months, labeling her as “BAD FOR SOUTH TEXAS.” He factors out that LaMantia voted towards numerous border safety payments and laws opposed by LGBTQ+ teams, comparable to a invoice to stop minors from accessing trans care. Her payments have been in keeping with nearly all of Home Democrats.

LaMantia mentioned she was capable of assist the Valley within the session. She pointed to a federally certified well being heart pilot program that expands medical care to uninsured Texans, and passing laws to permit for a examine that examines the prices and advantages of making extra drainage for flood-prone areas of south Texas.

Abortion has additionally been a flash level within the race – Hinojosa obtained the endorsement of Lucio Jr., who held the South Texas senate for 3 a long time. Lucio Jr. is a conservative Democrat who broke along with his occasion to oppose abortion and assist college vouchers, endearing him to Patrick, who oversees the chamber.

Lucio Jr. endorsed LaMantia as his successor within the 2022 Democratic main. Now, he says Hinojosa is the most effective match to signify the Brownsville-Corpus Christi district, specializing in their variations in abortion.

“Adam’s pro-life positions align with mine, the Roman Catholic Church, Texas pro-life Christian churches, pro-life organizations, and I firmly believe with most of Senate District 27’s constituents,” Lucio Jr. mentioned in a press release.

LaMantia helps growing entry to abortion. She voted towards a invoice that might ban constitution colleges from doing enterprise with abortion suppliers final session. She informed the Texas Tribune that she and Lucio Jr. have “a really great relationship, but he’s gotta do what he has to do.”

“It’s not going to slow us down or change our path or our plan in any way…We’re going to win this election, and after that, I am glad to work with him or anybody else that is putting SD 27 first,” she mentioned.

A number of days later, Lucio Jr.’s son, Eddie Lucio III, a former state consultant whose politics have been extra progressive than his father’s, endorsed LaMantia.

“As a former member of the Texas Legislature, I’ve seen firsthand what effective leadership looks like and how an elected member must conduct themselves to truly serve their district,” Lucio III mentioned in his information launch.

A special wrinkle in the one aggressive Texas Senate race is Inexperienced Celebration candidate Robin Lee Vargas.

That is her first time operating for public workplace. With this bid, she hopes to determine a foothold for the Inexperienced Celebration and assist different occasion candidates within the valley. When requested what she plans to do if she wins the seat, she pointed to the occasion platform.

Earlier this month, Inexperienced Celebration presidential candidate Jill Stein made a marketing campaign cease in McAllen. Stein final ran for president in 2016. Nationwide Democrats have ramped up assaults on Stein as fears of her enjoying spoiler enhance as Vice President Kamala Harris is in a toss-up with Trump as election day approaches. With this state race solely determined by just a few hundred votes final time round, Vargas might be seen as enjoying the identical position.

Kaswan mentioned a Inexperienced Celebration candidate won’t have the identical impact on this race since voters who sometimes Inexperienced Celebration won’t vote for LaMantia within the first place.

“Of course, in 2000, everybody blamed Ralph Nader for Al Gore’s loss,” mentioned Kaswan. “The Green Party’s response to that is ‘well, you just didn’t win those voters.’”