American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what might comply with, together with the potential for political violence, makes an attempt to overturn the election outcomes and its broader implications for democracy, in accordance with a brand new ballot.
The findings of the survey, performed by The Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs Analysis, converse to persistent issues concerning the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, practically 4 years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to simply accept the 2020 election outcomes impressed a mob of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol in a violent try to cease the peaceable switch of energy.
About 4 in 10 registered voters say they’re “extremely” or “very” involved about violent makes an attempt to overturn the outcomes after the November election. An identical share is apprehensive about authorized efforts to take action. And about 1 in 3 voters say they’re “extremely” or “very” involved about makes an attempt by native or state election officers to cease the outcomes from being finalized.
Comparatively few voters — about one-third or much less — are “not very” or “not at all” involved about any of that occuring.
Trump has continued to lie about fraud costing him reelection 4 years in the past and is once more forecasting that he can lose this time provided that the election is rigged towards him, a technique he has deployed since his first run for workplace. His allies and the Republican Nationwide Committee, which he reshaped, have filed lawsuits across the nation which can be a possible prelude to post-election authorized challenges ought to he lose.
“I thought after Jan. 6 of 2021, the GOP would have the sense to reject him as a candidate,” Aostara Kaye, of Downey, California, stated of Trump. “And since they didn’t, I think it just emboldened him to think he can do anything, and they will still stick with him.”
Many citizens suppose Trump received’t concede if he loses
Trump’s wide-ranging makes an attempt to reject the desire of the voters and stay in energy after his 2020 loss have led to issues that he’ll once more fail to concede ought to he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Almost 9 in 10 voters stated the loser of the presidential election is obligated to concede as soon as each state has completed counting its votes and authorized challenges are resolved, together with about 8 in 10 Republicans. However solely about one-third of voters anticipate Trump to simply accept the outcomes and concede if he loses.
Democrats and Republicans have broadly divergent views on the matter: About two-thirds of Republican voters suppose Trump would concede, in comparison with solely about 1 in 10 Democrats.
The identical concern doesn’t apply to Harris. Almost 8 in 10 voters stated Harris will settle for the outcomes and concede if she loses the election, together with a strong majority of Republican voters.
Democrats and Republicans divided on who would weaken democracy
Members of each events have broad issues about how American democracy may fare relying on the result of the November election.
General, about half of voters imagine Trump would weaken democracy within the U.S. “a lot” or “somewhat” if he wins, whereas about 4 in 10 stated the identical of Harris.
Not surprisingly, People had been deeply divided alongside ideological strains. About 8 in 10 Republicans stated one other time period for Trump would strengthen democracy “a lot” or “somewhat,” whereas the same share of Democrats stated the identical of a Harris presidency.
About 9 in 10 voters in every social gathering stated the opposing social gathering’s candidate can be more likely to weaken democracy at the very least “somewhat” if elected.
Kaye, a retired well being care system employee, known as Trump an “existential threat to the Constitution.” One prospect she stated frightens her is that if Trump wins, he doubtless won’t have the guardrails in his new administration that had been in place within the final one.
Republican voter Debra Apodaca, 60, from Tucson, Arizona, stated it’s Harris who’s a higher menace to democracy. She stated President Joe Biden’s administration has positioned too nice a precedence on international support and proven an absence of concern for its personal individuals.
“Our tax dollars, we’re just sending it everywhere. It’s not staying here. Why aren’t we taking care of America?” she stated. “Why should we pay taxes if we’re just sending it away?”
That lack of concern additionally consists of the border, she stated, including {that a} Harris win can be “the end to the Border Patrol.”
The January sixth assault on the Capitol is a dividing line
A part of what divides voters on their views of American democracy is the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol and who’s responsible. Democrats and independents are more likely than Republican voters to position “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of duty on Trump.
Susan Ohde, an unbiased voter from Chicago and a retiree from the monetary sector, stated she’s involved that “crazy people will buy the misinformation that they’re given,” main to a different such assault.
Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, California, stated different points are extra vital on this yr’s election. She stated her chief concern is the financial system and feels that prime costs, particularly in her residence state, are chasing off companies and making a dependency on authorities. It’s a dependency Harris needs to proceed, stated Minardi, a kids and household providers advocate.
Views concerning the Jan. 6 assault will not be the one ones the place voters break up alongside ideological strains. Following Trump’s lead, a majority of Republicans preserve that Biden was not legitimately elected. Almost all Democrats and about 7 in 10 independents imagine Biden was legitimately elected.
Different elements of the political system are divisive too
This yr’s presidential marketing campaign has highlighted one side of the American political system that some imagine is undemocratic — using the Electoral School to elect the president somewhat than the favored vote. Trump and Harris have concentrated their marketing campaign occasions and promoting in seven battleground states that symbolize simply 18% of the nation’s inhabitants.
About half of voters suppose the likelihood {that a} candidate might develop into president by profitable the Electoral School however shedding the favored vote is a “major problem” in U.S. elections. As with many different points, the query additionally reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the potential for an Electoral School-popular vote break up is a serious downside, in comparison with about one-third of Republicans.
Debra Christensen, 54, a house well being nurse and Democrat from Watertown, Wisconsin, is against the Electoral School that would give Trump the White Home even when he loses the favored vote for the third time.
“In this day and age with technology what it is, why can’t we have one person one vote?” she stated.
The ballot of 1,072 adults was performed Oct. 11-14, 2024, utilizing a pattern drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be consultant of the U.S. inhabitants. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 proportion factors.
