All voters are equal, however some voters are extra equal than others. And essentially the most equal of all dwell within the Equality State.
Wyoming has fewer than 435,000 eligible voters however will get two senators—the identical as California, which has over 67 occasions as many eligible voters.
Republicans’ benefit in low-population states is a part of what makes the Senate a deeply anti-democratic establishment. The truth is, two blue states, California and New York, collectively comprise extra individuals than 19 pink states mixed, in response to information from the U.S. Census Bureau.
That provides Republicans 38 senators—over a 3rd of the chamber—just about assured. New York and California give Democrats a complete of 4.
Which means a minority of the inhabitants—one that’s whiter and extra conservative than the nation at massive—will get to determine what passes Congress, even when extra progressive laws is supported by many of the nation. Heck, Republicans usually win management of the Senate even after they win fewer general votes in Senate races.
For instance, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso could have received reelection this yr by a whopping 51 share factors, however that figures out to lower than 135,000 votes. Examine that to California, the place Democrat Adam Schiff received by a comparatively slender 18 factors—or, in different phrases, greater than 2.7 million votes.
However there’s a easy, if troublesome, approach to repair minority rule within the Senate: Make new states.
The final time the U.S. grew the union was in 1959, with Alaska and Hawaii becoming a member of in fast succession. In a flip of contemporary occasions, Alaska was seen as leaning Democratic and Hawaii Republican, and the twin admission was bought as a approach to hold political steadiness in Washington.
Whereas such bipartisanship is unfathomable as we speak, the ethical case for admitting Washington, D.C., as a state is clear: Its residents are Americans who pay taxes, and as that well-known American Revolution slogan goes, there must be no taxation with out illustration.
And the ethical case for admitting the territories isn’t a lot completely different. The individuals of Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are Americans who additionally often pay federal taxes. (The one exception is maybe American Samoa, whose residents are U.S. nationals, although they can apply for citizenship.)
Statehood would grant the territories extra funding in Medicare, Medicaid, Pell Grants, and meals help, in response to a 2014 report about Puerto Rico statehood by the nonpartisan Authorities Accountability Workplace. In flip, these new states would additionally contribute extra in tax income to the broader U.S.
There are six clear candidates for statehood—plus a seventh lurking on the West Coast.
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico has a inhabitants of over 3.2 million, increased than 19 states—and 5 and a half occasions the scale of Wyoming (584,000 individuals). If admitted, it might doubtless have 4 Home members and the usual two senators.
Over 56% of Puerto Rico voted for statehood in November’s nonbinding referendum. That makes for the fourth consecutive referendum the place Puerto Ricans have opted for statehood. However these imply nothing until Congress acts.
Basically, to confess a state, the territory should current itself to Congress by “drafting a state constitution, electing state officers, organizing a state-like territorial government, and sending an elected ‘congressional’ delegation to Washington to lobby for statehood,” in response to the Congressional Analysis Service. Congress then should go laws admitting the territory, and the president must signal it. (This is named the “Tennessee Plan” for statehood.)
Puerto Rico already meets lots of these necessities. And within the 117th Congress, 62 Democratic Home members and 19 Republicans co-sponsored laws to make it a state. In 2022, the Home went as far as to go an “enabling act” that may have pushed issues additional—just for that act to die within the Senate, which, regardless of being below Democratic management, by no means scheduled a vote on it.
It’s arduous to understand how Puerto Rico would align politically if admitted as a state. This yr, Democrat Kamala Harris trounced Donald Trump—73% to 27%—in its presidential straw ballot, which for the primary time appeared on the identical poll as native elections. If that end result turned constant, Puerto Rico can be essentially the most favorable state for Democratic presidential candidates, interval. (The present No. 1 is Vermont, the place Harris received 64%.)
However issues aren’t so easy. For instance, Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro R. Pierluisi is affiliated with the Democratic Get together, however this previous January, he misplaced in a main to Jenniffer González-Colón, who’s affiliated with the Republican Get together. Once more, they’re each members of the native New Progressive Get together.
The rationale for this? A lot of the territory’s political divisions hinge on help for or opposition to statehood, independence, or the established order. The New Progressive Get together advocates statehood, and its members typically cut up their affiliation between the Democratic and Republican events. The opposite main get together in Puerto Rico—the Standard Democratic Get together—favors a model of the established order and is extra aligned with Democrats than Republicans.
In different phrases, the state of Puerto Rico would most likely be sending extra Democrats than Republicans to Washington—however emphasis on most likely.
Washington, D.C.
Nonetheless a lot partisan ambiguity you discover in Puerto Rico, you get the alternative in Washington, D.C. The district holds three electoral votes and has by no means given them to a Republican presidential candidate. And it’s not shut: Harris received it with over 90% of the vote.
So it’s no shock that just about each Home Democrat sponsored and voted for statehood laws when it was launched in 2021 by Eleanor Holmes Norton, the district’s nonvoting member of the Home.
Nonetheless, not a single Home Republican backed it. And whereas it nonetheless handed the Home that yr—Democrats managed the chamber—it was killed within the Senate by one man: Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who was on the time a Democrat.
And but, even when a Democratic Congress passes this laws sooner or later, there’s no assure the Supreme Court docket would let it dwell. The twenty third Modification to the Structure needed to be ratified to permit D.C. residents to vote in presidential elections. And there are lots of who consider conferring statehood on the district would require one other modification for the reason that Structure requires a district to deal with the U.S. Capitol, White Home, and different federal grounds. Nonetheless, pro-statehood advocates suggest carving out mentioned grounds as a approach to circumvent this.
Loopy factor is, a constitutional modification was nearly adopted in 1979. The D.C. Voting Rights Modification, which might have given the district full Home and Senate illustration, handed Congress and was despatched to the states to ratify, however it got here up 22 states wanting the required 38.
Nonetheless, the District of Columbia doesn’t get a say in Congress, regardless of having as many individuals as 1.2 Wyomings.
Different territories
And that is the place issues get even tougher, politically talking. America’s 4 different territories—American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands—all have very, very small populations. How small? The mixed inhabitants of all 4 (338,000) is little greater than half that of Wyoming, in response to the U.S. Census Bureau.
One other hurdle? A few of these territories don’t have a transparent political profit to both get together. Harris narrowly received Guam’s presidential straw ballot, and whereas Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama received by bigger margins, the territory twice backed Republican George W. Bush.
And while you have a look at the partisan affiliations of those territories’ main lawmakers, issues aren’t a lot clearer. The Virgin Islands is reliably Democratic, however they’ve fewer individuals (87,000) than many small cities within the U.S.
Within the worst case for Democrats, they’d doubtless find yourself netting simply 4 senators throughout all 5 territories (together with Puerto Rico) and the District of Columbia. Including the senators to the incoming Congress would look one thing like: Republicans 57, Democrats 55. In different phrases, not sufficient to beat Republicans’ present majority. (However different states may shut that hole too.)
Worst of all, these 4 territories haven’t any lively statehood actions, in contrast to D.C. and Puerto Rico. Nonetheless, that hasn’t stopped at the least one sitting Democratic senator, Brian Schatz of Hawaii, from publicly endorsing a large enlargement of statehood.
This leads us to our final possibility …
The Golden States
Virginia is named the “Mother of States” since eight different states had been carved out of land it as soon as claimed. West Virginia, the latest of its offspring, in 1863, has lower than 1.8 million residents. California has 22 occasions as many.
In some ways, it makes little sense to have a state the scale of California. It has the fifth-largest GDP on the planet (sure, world) and the most important GDP per capita, bar none. And whereas its measurement might be wielded for progressive achieve—for instance, when California modifications its emissions requirements, the entire nation modifications its emissions requirements—its regulation is however outdated by the federal authorities. California is an “ironclad” haven for abortion—till Donald Trump bans it federally.
The latest poll initiative to interrupt up California hit in 2018, spearheaded by enterprise capitalist and both-sides dipshit Tim Draper, however the state Supreme Court docket killed it. That plan, known as “Cal 3,” would have cracked the state into thirds, giving every by-product state an uninspired identify: California, Northern California, and Southern California.
All three hypothetical states would have gone for Harris in 2024, two by enormous margins (roughly 30 factors) and one far more narrowly (2.4 factors). Nonetheless, given Harris’ weak efficiency general, that swing-ish state will get over 5 factors bluer once we issue within the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In different phrases, it’d be about as secure as New Mexico for Democrats or Ohio for Republicans.
That might not be a danger many are keen to take, although, because it offers Republicans a shot—if a troublesome one—at nabbing a few of California’s electoral votes. Nonetheless, “Cal 3” is simply one far-from-ideal plan. And it isn’t arduous to attract a map that breaks California up into three or extra safely Democratic states.
In fact, such a transfer would entail many, many different points to type out. First off, California’s legislature must vote to interrupt up the state—i.e., state lawmakers must select to surrender energy. And the brand new states would want to ascertain new capitals, work out water rights, deal with their prisons … the checklist goes on.
All this complexity is why the previous 220 makes an attempt to interrupt up the Golden State have failed.
However Democrats are left with few good choices—and their future within the Senate seems to be rising dimmer by the yr.
