NEW DELHI: With solely two days between voting and outcomes, debates over exit polls heated-up as two extra surveys had been launched on Thursday, echoing earlier predictions. Aam Aadmi Get together, nonetheless, dismissed all projections, arguing that pollsters have “historically” underestimated its efficiency.
Most exit polls had been launched on Wednesday shortly after voting concluded in Delhi. They largely predicted a BJP comeback within the capital after 27 years, dealing a serious setback to AAP, which has dominated for over a decade and stays a robust political pressure.
AAP nationwide spokesperson Reena Gupta cited previous election developments, emphasising that exit polls had misjudged the social gathering’s success in 2013, 2015, and 2020. “Every time, AAP was predicted to win fewer seats than it actually did,” she stated. Senior chief Sanjay Singh went additional, ridiculing the projections as “surveys by massage and spa companies.”
Kejriwal stated in his submit on X: “These predictions are meant to shape political sentiment and weaken our party by causing defections.”
Furthermore, majority of pollsters have missed the mark in current elections, together with the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and state meeting elections in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra.
Exit ballot monitor document: A glance again
2013: Underestimating AAP’s rise
Exit polls in 2013 largely favoured the BJP, predicting a mean of 35 seats—simply wanting a majority—whereas forecasting 17 every for AAP and Congress.
The precise outcomes, nonetheless, noticed AAP win 28 seats, BJP 32, and Congress simply 8.
The closest prediction got here from Right now’s Chanakya, which estimated AAP would win 31 seats. The social gathering, propelled by the India Towards Corruption motion, fashioned a short-lived authorities with Congress help earlier than resigning over the Jan Lokpal Invoice after 48-days of assuming energy.
2015: A landslide that no ballot noticed coming
Six exit polls in 2015 forecast an AAP victory however failed to understand its scale. Whereas the typical prediction gave AAP 45 seats, the social gathering shocked observers by successful 67.
BJP scored simply 3, and Congress was left with no legislators within the meeting.
The best estimate for AAP got here from Axis My India at 53 seats, whereas India TV-CVoter predicted solely 39. Most polls additionally overestimated BJP’s probabilities, with many projecting over 20 seats.
2020: Polls extra correct, however nonetheless off the mark
By 2020, exit polls had been extra aligned with AAP’s dominance however nonetheless fell wanting the ultimate numbers. On common, they predicted 52 seats for AAP and 17 for BJP, whereas the precise outcomes noticed AAP win 62 and BJP safe 8. Congress, as soon as once more, did not win a single seat.
India Right now-Axis My India offered the closest estimate, forecasting 59-68 seats for AAP. In the meantime, Sudarshan Information gave BJP its highest projected tally at 24-28 seats, although the social gathering in the end fell far beneath that mark.
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