Jobless claims: extra of “steady as she goes” – Offended Bear

– by New Deal democrat

Now that we’re nicely previous the Holidays, seasonality has settled down and so have the comparisons for jobless claims.

Preliminary claims declined -7,000 to 213,000 final week, and the four-week common declined -1,000 to 216,000. With the standard one week delay, continued claims declined -36,000 to 1.850 million:

On the extra necessary YoY foundation for forecasting functions, preliminary claims have been larger by a mere 0.9%, and for the primary time in 5 months the four-week common was *decrease,* by -0.7%. Persevering with claims have been larger by 2.6%, about their common for the previous yr:

It’s too early within the month to speak about what this may imply for subsequent month’s jobs report, however preliminary claims, together with the YoY% change within the S&P 500, represent my “quick and dirty” forecasting mannequin. Mainly, if claims are larger YoY, and the inventory market is decrease, the financial system is nearly at all times in bother. Right here’s the replace:

With jobless claims basically unchanged from one yr in the past, and the inventory market larger by about 20%, the decision is: extra of “steady as she goes.”

The Bonddad Weblog

Preliminary and persevering with Jobless claims be part of the “steady as she goes” parade, Offended Bear by New Deal democrat