– by New Deal democrat
Covd-19 has now been with us for over 5 years. The primary dependable statistics began to be saved on the finish of March 2020. On Friday the CDC issued the ultimate replace for deaths ending the week of March 29, 2025, which suggests we now have 5 full years of documentation. So this can be a good time to have a look again, and to replace the place we stand.
To chop to the chase, it seems the unique Omicron variant was a watershed. All variants which have come and gone since then have been descended from that one. Between widespread, most likely close to common infections from that line over the previous three years, and vaccinations focused at that variant line, it very a lot appears to be like just like the virus is now going through a wall of resistance.
Right here is the CDC’s wastewater particle graph. This graph began on the time Omicron was rampant, so it solely covers the final 3+ years:
You’ll be able to see that Covid particles in wastewater have by no means gotten near their Omicron ranges, and there was a common decline over the previous yr.
Much more vital is what has occurred to deaths. Right here is the total 5 yr lengthy weekly chart of deaths:
Mainly, there was an terrible first two years, adopted by a pointy and persevering with decline thereafter.
Right here is similar chart, however only for the final three years (be aware distinction in scale):
Even confined to simply this time interval, the sample of ever lowering fatalities is evident.
Not solely have deaths declined, however they’ve declined by way over will be defined just by the prevalence of the virus in circulation. Beneath I present particles per milliliter for every vital peak starting with Omicron (1st column), deaths in 1000’s (second column), and variety of fatalities per virus particle (third column):
12/21 24.6. 21.3. 866
6/22. 10.5. 3.4. 324
12/22. 11.3. 3.9. 345
12/23. 14.0. 2.6. 186
6/24. 9.0. 1.4. 156
12/24. 5.5. 1.0. 182
On a per particle foundation, lethality declined by greater than half in 2022, after which by about one other half from the top of 2023 on. This is because of a mix of higher remedies for the illness, extra and repeated vaccinations, and almost common publicity with ensuing various ranges of resistance.
To drive the purpose residence, right here is the variety of deaths for every 52 week interval starting April 1 of every of the previous 5 years:
4/1/20-3/31/21 504,000
4/1/21-3/31/22 433,000
4/1/22-3/31/23 128,000
4/1/23-3/31/24 64,500
4/1/24-3/31/25 36,400.
One yr in the past, I closed this replace with the next:
“Finally, how does this compare with the flu? Well, the typical flu season gives rise to about 35,000 deaths +/-10,000. So even at 64,000 COVID is presently the equivalent of a very bad flu season. If the trends of the past several years continue, then in 1 or 2 years we will be down in the vicinity of 35,000 deaths per year.”
And right here we’re, one yr later, extraordinarily near that 35,000 benchmark. Covid has grow to be like a second flu. If this pattern continues for an additional yr, we may very well be right down to about 20,000 deaths.
Infectious illness modeler JP Weiland just lately wrote that for an additional vital outbreak, a brand new line of variants not descended from the unique Omicron would most likely must develop. Let’s preserve our fingers crossed that it doesn’t occur.
2024 yr finish Coronavirus dashboard: the yr COVID-19 was the flu, Indignant Bear by New Deal democrat
