After weeks of Republican hand-wringing over who may tackle Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, the occasion simply misplaced its finest shot.
On Monday, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp introduced that he gained’t be working for the seat in 2026, dealing a significant blow to GOP operatives who have been hoping he might flip one of many most weak Democratic-held seats.
“I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family,” Kemp wrote on X.
He added that he spoke with President Donald Trump and Senate management and pledged to assist elect a “strong Republican nominee” who would “put hardworking Georgians first.”
“I am confident we will be united in that important effort, and I look forward to electing the next generation of leaders up and down the ballot here in the Peach State who will keep our state and nation headed in the right direction in 2026 and beyond,” Kemp wrote.
That’s a pleasant sentiment, however the loss is actual. And in Georgia, the response was swift.
“Not necessarily the news we wanted to hear,” former Cobb County GOP Chair Jason Shepherd instructed Politico, summing up Republicans’ disappointment.
Kemp was by far the GOP’s strongest potential contender and the clearest menace to Ossoff, who has constructed a fundraising juggernaut. The Democratic incumbent raked in $11 million within the first quarter of 2025 alone, a staggering sum that his staff says is the most important ever first-quarter haul for an incumbent senator throughout an off 12 months.
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However Kemp wouldn’t simply have needed to deal with Ossoff’s struggle chest. Operating statewide as a Republican in 2026 might be robust. Trump’s approval rankings are dragging, and his coverage agenda is already shaping as much as be a political legal responsibility in key battlegrounds like Georgia. Kemp possible noticed that and correctly bowed out, leaving another person to take the hit.
This isn’t only a loss; it’s a warning signal. Even in a cycle the place the Senate map ought to tilt towards the GOP, Georgia is way from a gimme. Regardless of each Senate Majority Chief John Thune and Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott personally attempting to recruit Kemp, he nonetheless turned it down.
Ossoff isn’t assured to win reelection, however the GOP now faces a well-recognized dilemma: discovering a candidate who can survive a MAGA-fueled major and nonetheless win a normal election.
Kemp’s choice might set off a crowded and messy major. Trump loyalist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene hasn’t dominated out a run, although early polling means that she’d wrestle statewide. However that hasn’t stopped her from stoking hypothesis.
“I have a lot of options open,” she instructed NBC Information final week, although she was imprecise on whether or not she’s actively making calls or simply basking within the buzz.
Different names are floating round, together with Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, and Wealthy McCormick, however none of them have Kemp’s statewide profile and infrastructure.
Georgia is a high GOP goal in 2026, as one in every of simply two Senate seats Democrats are defending in states that Trump gained in 2024. However Kemp’s choice speaks volumes. He didn’t wish to run in a midterm 12 months the place Republicans should reply for Trump’s chaos—and doubtless kiss the ring.
That was by no means going to be match. In 2024, Trump publicly referred to as Kemp “Little Brian Kemp” and slammed his spouse for not backing his reelection. Kemp fired again, telling Trump to “leave my family out of it.” Issues could have since thawed, however nobody expects Kemp to grovel for Trump’s approval.
Which signifies that Kemp’s out. Ossoff is loaded. And Republicans are again to sq. one.
