Democrats pulled out an upset win within the race for Omaha mayor on Tuesday, ousting the three-term Republican incumbent in a race that finally wasn’t shut.
Democrat John Ewing defeated Mayor Jean Stothert 56% to 44%, in accordance to unofficial outcomes, giving Democrats the mayorship of Nebraska’s largest metropolis for the primary time in 12 years. Stothert’s decisive loss is a major change from the mayoral election 4 years in the past, when she took 64% of the vote.
Ewing, who would be the metropolis’s first Black mayor, gained by tying Stothert to President Donald Trump, saying that reelecting her would carry Omaha the type of chaos Trump has unleashed upon the remainder of the nation.
Stothert tried to blunt these assaults by turning to right-wing tradition battle points, saying, “Ewing stands with radicals who want to allow boys in girls’ sports.” Mailers within the race had been additionally targeted on that repulsive anti-LGBTQ+ message.
However the message fell flat, and he or she misplaced decisively.
Worse for Republicans, Stothert’s loss is horrible information for Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican whose district contains all the metropolis of Omaha in addition to some suburbs.
In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris gained Douglas County, the place Omaha is positioned, with 54% of the vote, so the 56% Ewing gained within the metropolis is a slight overperformance. In the meantime, Bacon barely gained reelection final 12 months, taking 50.9% to the Democratic nominee’s 49.1%, so even a small swing towards Democrats would seemingly result in his ouster within the 2026 midterm elections.
And Democrats are poised to see a swing of their course within the midterms. Democrats have overperformed in virtually each particular election held since November, with a mean overperformance of 12% in contrast with Harris’ outcomes final 12 months, in accordance with knowledge maintained by The Downballot.
If that holds, it will likely be greater than the common Democratic overperformance within the 2017-2018 election cycle, earlier than Democrats rode a blue wave to retake management of the U.S. Home within the 2018 midterms. Democrats overperformed in particular elections these years by a mean of 10.6% in contrast with the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election, in accordance with The Downballot.
Bacon appears to know his vulnerability. Reuters reported in late April that he’s contemplating retiring from Congress moderately than run for reelection.
Shedding Bacon—by retirement or election defeat—could be a significant blow to Republicans, who’re anticipated to have simply a three-seat majority heading into the 2026 midterms. With out Bacon, Republicans’ probabilities at holding the Home could be much more tough.
Nonetheless, it appears Republicans are taking the mistaken message about Tuesday’s leads to Omaha. Slightly than calling for moderation or perhaps a nominal examine on Trump, the state’s Republican Gov. Jim Pillen as an alternative blamed Republican voters, who, in his phrases, “just didn’t get the vote out.”
“This should not have happened,” Pillen stated.
However that dimension of a swing towards Democrats from simply 4 years in the past isn’t primarily as a result of Republicans didn’t end up. It was that voters within the metropolis didn’t purchase what Stothert was promoting. And that’s a foul signal for the GOP subsequent November.
