Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of an important polling tendencies or knowledge factors it is advisable to find out about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Day by day Kos reporting, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Republicans’ proposed Medicaid cuts hit residence
This previous week, Home Republicans launched their first main piece of laws, “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”—caps included—which might slash over $700 billion from Medicaid and kick hundreds of thousands of individuals off their medical health insurance.
In different phrases, Republicans are appearing like they don’t signify anybody enrolled in Medicaid—which is much from the reality.
On common, 1 in 5 Individuals dwelling in a Republican-held Home district is enrolled in Medicaid, in response to a Day by day Kos evaluation of knowledge compiled by KFF. In reality, 13 GOP-held districts have 1 in 3 enrolled in Medicaid, and two districts have greater than half of residents registered within the public medical health insurance program.
Sixty-four p.c of California’s twenty second District is enrolled in Medicaid. The district is represented by David Valadao, a moderate-ish Republican who voted to question President Donald Trump within the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol rebellion. He gained reelection final 12 months, with 53.4% of the vote to his Democratic challenger’s 46.6%. Nonetheless, 495,200 of his constituents, together with 176,600 youngsters, are enrolled in Medicaid, so if he votes to slash this system, it should seemingly backfire.
Nevertheless, Kentucky’s fifth District—the place 54% are enrolled in Medicaid—is one other story. It’s represented by far-right Republican Hal Rogers, and final 12 months, Democrats didn’t contest the district, which Trump gained with 79% of the vote. Margins like that may give Rogers, a person of little character, no cause to not vote to jeopardize well being protection for greater than half of his constituents.
Nonetheless, Medicaid is a very fashionable program, with 88% of Democrats, 81% of independents, and even 64% of Republicans having a good view of it, in response to a KFF ballot carried out in January.
If Republicans undergo with their Medicaid-wrecking price range invoice, it’ll give Democrats a simple, resonant line of assault forward of the 2026 midterm elections. It’s simply an terrible disgrace that it’ll come on the expense of low-income and disabled of us struggling.
Okay, doomer
Battle, what’s it good for? One thing to really feel scared about, apparently.
A brand new YouGov ballot for The Economist finds that 44% of U.S. grownup residents assume a world struggle is extra seemingly now than it was 5 years in the past. Solely 13% say a world struggle is much less seemingly now, whereas 30% say it’s about the identical.
Worse, 36% of Individuals say a nuclear struggle is extra seemingly right now than 5 years in the past, whereas an identical share (34%) say it’s about the identical. Nonetheless, solely 14% say it’s much less seemingly now.
That sounds dangerous—very dangerous—however the reality is, fears of a nuclear struggle appear to be really fizzling out or at the least plateauing.
Day by day Kos tracked down 17 polls through which YouGov requested concerning the present chance of nuclear struggle in contrast with 5 years prior, with the primary survey getting into the sector simply two days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. That ballot discovered that 48% of Individuals believed nuclear struggle was extra seemingly at the moment than 5 years prior.
In a ballot fielded the next week, that quantity spiked to 59%, presumably attributable to elevated media protection of Russia’s invasion.
However thus far, 59% has been the height, with that determine steadily dropping to the mid-to-low 40s by September 2022. There was a quick spike again as much as round 50% between October and November of that 12 months, seemingly spurred by faltering talks of a brand new Iran nuclear deal in addition to the continued struggle in Ukraine. However in January, it fell once more to 42%.
And now it has fallen additional, to 36%. However why?
It’s potential that many Individuals who noticed a higher menace in 2022-2023 have since settled right into a kind of center floor: 34% of Individuals within the newest ballot say the probabilities of nuclear struggle are “about the same” as 5 years in the past. That’s the best “about the same” determine throughout the 17 polls. This might imply that the elevated menace Individuals felt again then has since stabilized.
It’s additionally potential that Individuals’ elevated worry of a nuclear struggle was tied to media protection round Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In any case, Russia is estimated to have the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, at 5,580 warheads, and solely the U.S. comes shut with 5,22 of its personal. If a nuclear struggle had been to start out, it’d most likely contain one or each of these nations at some capability. However because the struggle in Ukraine has pale from entrance pages, Individuals’ nuclear fears have stabilized or decreased.
Another excuse for Individuals’ altering attitudes might be partisanship. Throughout all polls carried out whereas Joe Biden was president, a median of 46% of Democrats mentioned the present likelihood of nuclear struggle was higher than 5 years prior, nearly the identical because the share within the newest ballot (45%). Nevertheless, throughout Biden’s presidency, the typical share of Republicans who felt the identical method was 57%—and it by no means dipped beneath 48%. However the newest ballot, carried out greater than 100 days into Trump’s second administration, finds that simply 28% of Republicans say nuclear struggle is extra seemingly than 5 years in the past.
Hmm … surprise what modified.
Dissatisfied with freedoms
Newly launched knowledge from Gallup finds Individuals are much less glad with their freedoms than their world friends—however a lot of that has to do with how a lot much less free American ladies really feel.
Seventy-two of Individuals had been glad with their freedom to stay their life as they see match. Nevertheless, that’s beneath the worldwide median (81%) and properly beneath these dwelling in wealthy, market-based economies (86%). Nevertheless, in 2021, 81% of Individuals had been glad with their freedoms.
So what occurred? The Dobbs choice occurred, largely.
The share of American ladies who had been glad with their freedoms dropped from 81% in 2021 to 71% in 2022—and has continued to fall, reaching 66% final 12 months. That makes for a 15-point drop since 2021, and it’s thrice the decline males noticed between 2021 and 2024 (5 factors).
Gallup’s knowledge hyperlinks this decline and this gender hole to the Supreme Court docket’s choice in Dobbs v. Jackson Girls’s Well being Group, which eradicated the constitutional proper to abortion. Why that hyperlink? As a result of Gallup’s 2022 survey was within the subject as Politico reported on a leaked draft of that call, on Might 2, 2022.
In surveys accomplished within the days earlier than Politico’s report, 80% of American ladies mentioned they felt glad with their freedom within the U.S., however within the days instantly after the report, that quantity plummeted to 68%. In the meantime, the share of American males who had been glad with their freedoms remained primarily unchanged (75% earlier than the leak, 77% after the leak).
Like every good knowledge science agency, Gallup hedges its discovering, writing, “While the poll doesn’t ask people why they do or don’t feel satisfied with their freedom, the timing of the 2022 decline relative to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs suggests that the loss of constitutional protection for abortion could be a strong factor” in Individuals’ declining satisfaction with their private freedom.
“That decision coincided with a decline in women’s satisfaction with their freedom, one that has only deepened since,” Gallup added.
Any updates?
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Trump has accepted a deliberate bribe from the Qatari authorities within the type of a $400 million luxurious jet that his presidential library will personal after he exits the White Home—and shockingly, 52% of Individuals say this present will affect Trump’s actions as president, in response to a new YouGov knowledge. Moreover, 47% say his acceptance of the present is “unacceptable.”
Vibe test
As of Friday, 60% of registered voters assume abortion ought to be authorized in most or all instances, whereas 37% assume it ought to be unlawful in most or all instances, in response to Civiqs. Nevertheless, amongst feminine voters, 66% help abortion being authorized in most/all instances, and solely 31% assume it ought to be unlawful in most/all instances.
Assist for abortion rights is decrease amongst males. The plurality (35%) say abortion ought to be unlawful most often, with one other 9% saying it ought to be unlawful in all instances. In the meantime, 29% say it ought to be authorized most often, and 23% say it ought to be authorized in all instances.
