– by New Deal democrat
It’s a sluggish financial information week, so don’t be stunned if I play hookie tomorrow or Wednesday.
Within the meantime, now that we’ve July’s inflation information, we are able to replace some “real” shopper well-being indicators.
First, actual common hourly wages for nonsupervisory staff rose 0.1% in July to a brand new all-time excessive excluding April by June 2020:
It has risen 3.8% since its pre-pandemic all-time excessive, and three.0% from its June 2022 post-pandemic low (when gasoline costs have been $5/gallon).
In the meantime, Motio Analysis has up to date their month-to-month calculation of actual median family revenue by June. Additionally it is at an all-time excessive excluding the months of March by August 2020:
Notice this contains pandemic stimulus funds in addition to wages, which is why it surged in the course of the early months of the pandemic.
Lastly, actual mixture payrolls for nonsupervisory staff – the perfect measure of the collective shopping for energy of America’s center and dealing class – declined -0.1% in July from its all-time excessive in June:
Though, per the BLS, Hurricane Beryl didn’t have an effect on the employment or unemployment numbers for July, there’s some indication that it *did* impression the variety of hours labored, which declined -0.2%. This decline in hours explains why mixture payrolls declined, though actual wages per hour labored elevated.
If actual mixture payrolls fail to make a brand new excessive within the subsequent couple of months, that will be trigger for some concern, for the reason that peak on this metric is a brief main indicator for recessions.
However all in all, actual revenue in July continued the current run of fine information.
Actual common nonsupervisory wages close to, actual mixture nonsupervisory payrolls at, all-time highs Offended Bear, by New Deal democrat
