“All eyes on San Antonio”: Democratic disunity, GOP push flip mayor’s race right into a political battleground

Join The Temporary, The Texas Tribune’s each day publication that retains readers on top of things on probably the most important Texas information.

---

Nationwide press, statewide political figures and even a documentary movie crew all have their eyes skilled on a San Antonio mayoral race that might make the town a beacon of the Democratic resistance — or set a brand new high-water mark for Texas Republicans’ inroads in traditionally blue territory.

Within the first spherical of a nonpartisan contest, quick-witted former congressional candidate Gina Ortiz Jones, 44, tapped into voters’ frustration with the early months of the Trump Administration, an method that helped her beat out — by far — an extended record of candidates with extra metropolis authorities expertise.

Left-leaning council members at the moment management 9 of San Antonio’s 10 council seats, and Jones’ 27% assist within the first spherical of voting made her the odds-on favourite to turn out to be the town’s subsequent chief.

But days out from a Saturday runoff election wherein a number of metropolis races have come right down to left-right matchups, political watchers say the competition is something however sewn up.

Jones is locked in a battle with Rolando Pablos, 57, an affable enterprise lawyer who’s been campaigning straight out of the nationwide GOP’s playbook, purposefully dropping the “Ortiz” from Jones’ title practically each time he will get behind a microphone and suggesting her army file deserves further scrutiny.

Such a matchup needs to be fueling Democratic enthusiasm in a state the place Republicans management practically each different lever of energy — and simply six months in the past took management of the White Home and Congress, too.

But a fragmented native celebration, a broken Democratic model and a stunning rejection of Jones amongst a number of the metropolis’s close-knit political elite have some frightened that one of many state’s final blue strongholds may very well be in jeopardy.

All of it comes as a PAC with ties to Gov. Greg Abbott and San Antonio’s police union have been pouring cash into the race for weeks on Pablos’ behalf — alarming teams on the left which are coming to Jones’ protection with growing urgency.

With many Democrats who favored different mayoral candidates nonetheless on the sidelines within the runoff, this week the LGBTQ+ Stonewall Democrats issued a frank plea for celebration unity to assist Jones, who could be the town’s first lesbian mayor.

A letter from the group stated native officers with Democratic leanings owe the LGBTQ+ group their assist even “when the stakes become uncomfortable.”

“Right now Gina Ortiz Jones is facing a well-funded Republican opponent with views that stand in direct opposition to the values we hold dear,” the Stonewall Democrats wrote. ” … Are you actually snug sitting out this race whereas a candidate with MAGA-aligned views strikes ahead unchecked?”

In a nod to the disunity, longtime Democratic Councilman John Braveness (D9), whose personal mayoral launch was interrupted by progressive activists calling for a ceasefire decision within the Israel-Hamas conflict, responded scathingly to being named within the letter, saying Stonewall Democrats “practically chased” him away and that Jones “has zero personality to get elected.”

This week the progressive Texas Organizing Mission and Annie’s Record have been scrambling to reframe the race round Pablos and his ties to unpopular GOP state leaders, and even the Texas Democratic Social gathering is getting concerned.

“We’ve got team members out here knocking on doors … we’re collaborating with our partners, we’re teaming up on some communications programs,” Texas Democratic Social gathering Chair Kendall Scudder stated after a marketing campaign rally with Jones at Jaime’s Place on Sunday, the place he and different Democrats sought to current a united entrance.

“We’re doing everything that we can to try to make sure that we’re holding this seat for the people of San Antonio.”

‘All eyes on San Antonio’

In a nod to the rising curiosity within the race, this week the Jones marketing campaign stated the New York Instances and different nationwide media shops began reaching out about their plans to cowl a contest with main implications for both candidate’s nationwide celebration.

Erin Covey, a nationwide analyst for the nonpartisan Prepare dinner Political Report, stated it’s not unusual for races proper after a serious nationwide election to get outsized consideration as each events take a look at messages they may use within the subsequent midterm.

South Texas is excessive on each events’ political radars, as President Donald Trump flipped historically blue Starr and Webb counties in November.

The GOP even outperformed its 2020 end in Bexar County by about 5%, serving to Republican candidates flip a trio of seats on the 32-county Fourth Courtroom of Appeals and fueling additional hypothesis about historically blue Hispanic voters trending crimson.

“[South Texas] is where we have seen the most dramatic swings in the country,” stated Covey, who famous that a pair of Democrat-held congressional seats there have already turn out to be the middle of the U.S. Home map in 2026.

Including to the intrigue, each mayoral candidates additionally deliver some uncommon potential star energy to one of many first main elections after the GOP’s November wave.

Electing a Hispanic Republican mayor in a majority-Hispanic city heart would nearly actually make Pablos an in a single day sensation amongst state and nationwide Republicans as they proceed to spotlight their inroads with voters of coloration.

In the meantime Jones is a rising Democratic voice in a crimson state, the place her data of the federal coverage panorama — and skill to react shortly to the Trump Administration’s adjustments on the marketing campaign path — is already setting her up as a counterweight to these in energy in Austin and Washington.

Each candidates have been supported within the first spherical by moneyed PACs with acknowledged targets of constructing benches for his or her events’ futures, and a movie crew unrelated to both marketing campaign, Revision Information, already has 200 hours of footage for a documentary in regards to the race that it’s planning to air in early 2026.

“Democrats have obviously really struggled in Texas over the past several cycles, after saying time and time and again that they can make this a purple state,” Covey stated. “Having another potentially strong candidate in a higher-profile position helps with their bench-building long term.”

As Democrats’ former U.S. Senate candidate sized up the state of affairs in a latest fundraising e-mail for Jones: “All eyes are on San Antonio’s mayoral race right now.”

Republicans’ South Texas beneficial properties have largely been attributed to Trump’s distinctive model, which performs higher than the common GOP candidate. But when Pablos can show there’s a path for a Republican within the largest city heart up from the border, it can sign a whole sea-change for his celebration.

“There’s obviously a lot of questions right now about how much the [Republican Party] can do without Trump on the ballot, but we have seen Republicans replicate his gains with Hispanic voters down-ballot,” Covey stated. “It’ll be interesting to see, particularly the most heavily Latino precincts, how they end up voting.”

A slender path for a conservative

Born in Mexico to oldsters who “sacrificed everything” to deliver his household to the U.S., Pablos went on to turn out to be a detailed ally of each Abbott and former Gov. Rick Perry and maintain quite a few high-level state management appointments.

As a prime financial growth adviser whereas serving as secretary of state, Pablos developed a imaginative and prescient for a way authorities can assist companies thrive, plus a sharpened frustration on behalf of these lacking out.

“I traveled the world bringing investment here, and I will do it for San Antonio. It’s not that hard,” he stated at a Could 6 debate, noting that in his travels, the San Antonio Spurs basketball group was typically the one factor folks knew in regards to the metropolis.

“We have the opportunity to be on the global stage. We just haven’t taken it.”

Whereas it’s not unusual for conservative candidates to make runoffs in San Antonio, that assist typically hits a ceiling in a head-to-head race, and Pablos initially deliberate to outrun that dynamic with a business-centric method that minimized partisanship.

“I want to be that unity candidate,” he advised the San Antonio Report in an interview at his workplace practically a 12 months in the past. “I think my story is very similar to the story of those in Districts 1 through 7, and so even though I live on the North Side, I have that crossover appeal.”

Now in an uphill race, with two different runoffs on the poll within the metropolis’s extra conservative North Facet — a distinct path has opened.

After taking 17% within the first spherical, Pablos’ marketing campaign ran towards his base, selling outcomes of a push-poll that spelled out how they would want to redefine Jones in a runoff and dramatically shifting his tone.

Current adverts from each Pablos’ marketing campaign and his PAC allies have accused Jones, who’s Filipina, of pretending to be Hispanic, supporting army base closures, dodging the press and having her cellphone taken away from her in a debate.

At a latest Republican Membership of Bexar County gathering at Chester’s Hamburgers, the Trumpian metamorphosis was on full show.

To a crowd of celebration activists, he referred to as Jones a “woke progressive” and a twice-rejected congressional candidate who swoops in from Washington D.C. simply to run for workplace. He stated her tenure as Underneath Secretary of the Air Power beneath the Biden Administration led to low recruitment numbers, and he leaned into his relationships with state GOP leaders, noting his plans to satisfy with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick later within the week.

“She’s trying to tie Greg Abbott around my neck, saying how I’m Greg Abbott’s puppet,” Pablos advised the gang. “All of these things are just helping my base.”

Reasonably than shirking partisan labels, the conservative metropolis candidates have all embraced the narrative that Democrats’ leftward march is driving voters their approach, with Pablos urging Republicans to “take this city back” and “combat the virus that is at City Hall.”

San Antonio metropolis leaders have largely steered away from a number of the progressive concepts that drove voters away in different massive Texas cities, corresponding to calls to defund the police.

However in an indication of shifting political sands, even some progressives have sought distance from these efforts this 12 months — and two council candidates who’ve run earlier than as Democrats rejected their county celebration’s endorsements.

Pablos’ pitch at Chester’s was that he’s selecting up supporters proper and left, actually.

“That’s how scared everybody really is of my opponent,” Pablos stated. “It would be a travesty to have this lady run our city.”

An outsider candidate?

In two previous runs for Congress, Jones’ army file and compelling private story made her right into a nationwide star able to pulling tens of millions in particular person and PAC {dollars}.

However whereas she’s netted a lengthy record of endorsements from previous mayors, state and federal lawmakers and council members within the mayoral race, quite a lot of the town’s enterprise and political elites are selecting to remain out of a transparent distinction election.

By the use of clarification, some are sounding alarms that it’s Jones, not Pablos, who may upend San Antonio’s close-knit and largely bipartisan native political scene.

The daughter of a single mom who emigrated from the Philippines, Jones has caught to a liberal ideology rooted in difficult private experiences.

Her household struggled with housing insecurity and she or he attended a few of San Antonio’s lowest-performing colleges on the West Facet, but an ROTC scholarship took her to Boston School then Iraq as a member of the U.S. Air Power, the place leaders selected her for development to the army’s highest ranks.

Since returning house from her newest publish as Underneath Secretary of the Air Power, Jones has been assembly with leaders from Centro San Antonio, city-owned utilities SAWS and CPS Vitality, enterprise teams, VIA Metropolitan Transit, Brooks Metropolis Base and others — impressing many as she ready for a transition to native authorities.

However Jones’ common governing perspective hasn’t at all times lined up with the town’s energy constructions, complicating her efforts whereas campaigning throughout dozens of candidate boards.

Maybe most notably, Jones got here into the race railing towards a $4 billion downtown redevelopment venture referred to as Mission Marvel, which she framed as a handout for Spurs homeowners and a transparency failure for metropolis leaders engaged on it behind closed doorways.

She’s referred to as for the town to put money into folks as a substitute of initiatives by means of expanded Pre-Ok packages, job coaching and reasonably priced housing.

Recalling her household of 4 sharing one queen-sized mattress when she was a toddler, Jones stated that metropolis cash could be higher spent on schooling and workforce packages, noting, “we need to be thoughtful and make sure that our downtown doesn’t go the way of Austin, which is just a place that rich people live.”

Although she’s taken a extra open-minded method to Marvel in latest weeks, most of the metropolis’s enterprise pursuits have flocked to Pablos, who navigates their circles with confidence after a few years in native enterprise teams, together with a stint chairing the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

This week the San Antonio Categorical-Information editorial board, plus former San Antonio Report editor Robert Rivard and former Democratic state Senator Leticia Van de Putte, who owns a authorities consulting agency, all backed Pablos — noting his enterprise expertise and imaginative and prescient for financial growth.

Whereas it’s unclear how a lot insiders’ opinions matter within the race, a now-surprising variety of them are sounding open to a candidate whose conservative background would probably be the most important elementary change San Antonio politics has seen in a few years.

Leaning on grassroots assist

Amongst Jones’ supporters, most imagine her deeply progressive values are what have made her so in style with the Democratic everyman and can carry her by means of an election in a metropolis that’s nonetheless deeply blue.

“I think it’s Gina’s race to lose. She’s got the support of a lot of grassroots-type folks that are behind her, myself included,” Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar stated at Sunday’s rally.

“She’s got a lot of the values that I value. She’s a veteran who climbed the ranks, worked her way all the way up to the top levels of the Air Force, and never forgot where she came from.”

Certainly, Jones was a prime fundraiser in a subject that included many left-leaning candidates, and she or he stood out in debates by channeling frustration about Trump’s closeness to billionaire Elon Musk and the eroding respect of overseas allies.

Requested at a Feb. 22 discussion board on the East Facet whether or not they may see themselves agreeing with any facets of the Trump administration, Jones was one of many solely candidates to present a powerful no, drawing clear appreciation from the viewers.

“Trump and his policies are a threat to our democracy,” Jones advised the gathering at Higher Love Missionary Baptist Church. “I have served our country all over the world. I know the importance of American leadership. We are only able to lead based on the credibility of our word and our actions.”

“We are less credible when we have a person leading our country implementing policies that are there to enrich himself and those that support him.”

Whereas a few of that preliminary backlash to President Donald Trump’s first months in workplace has quieted, many imagine Pablos’ closeness with GOP leaders nonetheless should be a ample anchor in San Antonio.

Abbott and different Texas Republicans have sought to restrict cities’ talents to manipulate themselves, outlawed practically all abortions and DEI efforts and undermined public colleges — and given the prospect to face as much as his celebration bosses in previous roles, Jones says, Pablos hasn’t executed it.

Throughout his time as secretary of state Pablos was sued by the League of Girls Voters and NAACP for partaking in actions that they stated may result in voter intimidation, Jones stated at a KLRN debate.

“The Trump voter commission was asking for that personal voter information — … he was willing to do it, other Republican Secretaries of State said no, and a Texas District judge had to order him not to share that information,” Jones stated.

After assembly with each mayoral hopefuls this month, the highly effective group group COPS/Metro raised issues about Pablos’ contrasting imaginative and prescient for financial growth in a metropolis that’s chosen to speculate vital public cash in coaching residents for better-paying jobs.

“He held up as things that need to be preserved: low-wage jobs in the tourism industry,” COPS/Metro board member Sonia Rodriguez stated in an interview. “Don’t get us wrong, there will always be that segment that’s important for the city, but that should not be the foundation for the economic development.”

On Monday, Jones huddled on the South Facet with longtime organizers together with civil rights activist Rosie Castro, who dismissed criticism from the “powers that be” who she stated would bend over backwards to guard initiatives they personally profit from — like Mission Marvel.

Castro additionally pointedly stated it wasn’t stunning to see one other feminine candidate beneath assault.

“We’re watching, on a national level and on a state level, this kind of pushback on and fear of women and women leadership,” Castro stated. “It’s crazy.”

Nonetheless Castro, who devoted her life to progressive activism, stated she could be “saddened” if San Antonio elected a Republican to guide the town by means of the subsequent 4 years after a long time of organizing from so many individuals swept Democrat after Democrat into workplace.

“We’ve prided ourselves in being a Democratic city, and I think that it might really injure that sense,” she stated. “I don’t want to see that happen.”

Acknowledging the shifting narrative, Jones advised the Categorical-Information just lately that her opponent had efficiently labeled her as chilly and robotic, which isn’t how she views herself. She stated her “resting bitch face” typically offers folks the unsuitable impression, however she hoped the race would hinge on extra substantive coverage variations.

Forward of Saturday’s election, Jones and her supporters are hoping Pablos’ kitchen-sink technique doesn’t overpower the larger political image.

“It’s me or Greg Abbott, that’s what this comes down to, right?” she advised the gathering of roughly 100 folks at Jaime’s Place on a sizzling Memorial Day weekend. “So when folks are like, ‘What about this? What about that?’ Let’s keep the main thing, the main thing.”

Disclosure: Brooks Metropolis Base, CPS Vitality, New York Instances and By way of Metropolitan Transit have been monetary supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan information group that’s funded partly by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Monetary supporters play no function within the Tribune’s journalism. Discover a full record of them right here.

---

First spherical of TribFest audio system introduced! Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Maureen Dowd; U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio; Fort Value Mayor Mattie Parker; U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-California; and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas are taking the stage Nov. 13–15 in Austin. Get your tickets right now!