It’s lengthy been stated that Congress is lots like college.
What’s the very first thing they do in class? Take attendance.
That’s one factor which they often don’t do in Congress.
However they could subsequent 12 months.
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Determining who’s current and accounted for and who’s out will emerge as one of the vital dramatic day by day occasions on Capitol Hill.
It’s at all times in regards to the math on Capitol Hill.
However the 119th Congress will actually be in regards to the math.
Day by day within the Home will hinge on who’s sick. Who has a father or mother/instructor convention. Whose aircraft was delayed resulting from snow. Who’s simply enjoying hooky and isn’t dependable. Who was giving a speech downtown, obtained caught in site visitors and simply didn’t make it again in time. Whose child is starring within the college play. Whose aunt died.
President Trump and Home Republicans have large plans for his or her 2025 legislative agenda. However the miniscule dimension of the GOP majority may mood these expectations each day.
Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaks throughout a press convention together with different Home Republican leaders on the U.S. Capitol in Washington DC, United States on November 19, 2024. (Posner/Anadolu by way of Getty Pictures)
It is going to be fascinating to see what Republicans can execute.
Republicans will possible start the brand new 12 months with a 219-215 majority. So 434 seats. There may be one emptiness as former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned. That’s a margin of 4 seats. However it in actuality, it means the GOP majority can solely tolerate one Republican defector on every roll name vote without having assist from the opposite facet. One Republican “nay” is 218-216. However two Republican rebels produces a 217-217 tie. By rule, ties lose within the Home.
However the starting of the brand new Congress on January 3 may signify the Halycon days for the Home Republican Convention.
Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., intend to resign in January to hitch the Trump Administration. Stefanik is up for United Nations Ambassador and requires affirmation for that submit. The President-elect tapped Waltz to function Nationwide Safety Advisor. That place isn’t topic to Senate affirmation. So the Republican majority will dwindle to 217-215. At that time, Republicans can’t lose any votes to go their agenda.
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That may be a downside for Home Republicans who commonly had a squadron of defectors – starting from maintaining the federal government open to even impeaching Homeland Safety Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This might even spell issues for Home Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., returning to the Speaker’s suite. Johnson should win an outright majority of all Home members voting when the brand new Congress convenes on January 3 to grow to be Speaker. He’ll have a little bit of a cushion when the brand new Congress begins. However it gained’t be a lot. Home Republicans nonetheless endure from political PTSD after the 15 rounds it took to elect former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., early final 12 months.
Sure. There will probably be particular elections to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has already referred to as a particular election for the Gaetz seat for April 1.
You possibly can’t make these items up.
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) waves on stage on the third day of the Republican Nationwide Conference on the Fiserv Discussion board on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Leon Neal/Getty Pictures)
The opposite particular elections are months away as a result of Stefanik and Waltz haven’t resigned but. In reality, if Stefanik is confirmed and resigns in late January, it could be Might earlier than there’s a particular election in her seat – primarily based on New York regulation and discretion afforded New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).
The leads to particular elections typically produce “special” outcomes. The standard voters periodically stays residence and the alternative social gathering captures these seats in off-cycle elections. So, regardless that these are “Republican” seats, there’s no assure that Republicans will robotically prevail.
But when issues go in keeping with plan, Republicans could have these seats again in just a few months, with a relatively strong 220-215 majority. Which means Republicans can lose as much as two votes on any main concern.
However there are at all times absences. All the time resignations.
And this isn’t restricted to the Republican facet of the aisle.
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There have lengthy been issues in regards to the well being and attendance of 79-year-old Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the highest Democrat on the Home Agriculture Committee. Scott confronted criticism earlier this 12 months over an absence of public appearances and interviews.
76-year-old Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., is the highest Democrat on the Home Pure Sources Committee. Grijalva vowed that this time period could be his final after affected by most cancers. The sickness sidelined Grijalva for months. He missed greater than 300 roll name votes on the ground between February and this fall and didn’t conduct interviews.
Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Invoice Pascrell, D-N.J. and Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., have been all in workplace once they handed away this 12 months. Late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died in 2023.
Democrats make loads of noise proper now in regards to the agenda of President-elect Trump. It is going to be incumbent on Democrats to have full attendance to oppose Republicans and customarily make life depressing for almost all. However Democrats can solely do this in the event that they present up. On a regular basis.
Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., conducts his weekly information convention within the Capitol Customer Heart on Thursday, Might 23, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Name, Inc by way of Getty Pictures)
Such was the case when Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., had the votes of each Home Democrat on every roll name for Speaker in January and October of final 12 months. Solely Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed a few votes as a result of he underwent a surgical process. However Trone returned to Capitol Hill later that night to vote.
Rep. Al Inexperienced, D-Tex., was hospitalized this previous February. However Inexperienced got here to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February to assist torpedo the preliminary effort to question Mayorkas. Republicans had three defectors on their facet. Inexperienced’s vote contemporary from a hospital gurney compelled the GOP effort to fail on the ground and take a look at once more.
One issue which was a problem for the GOP was the well being of Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was recognized with most cancers final 12 months and was out the primary a part of 2023. Scalise has now recovered. However his absence hamstrung the GOP on large votes just like the preliminary Mayorkas impeachment.
Sadly – and inevitably – there will probably be absences resulting from well being. And God forbid, dying. Not often does a Congress go with out the dying of a lawmaker – typically unexpected. Late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides died in a site visitors accident through the summer time of 2022.
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So pay attention for the attendance bells within the Home subsequent 12 months. Examine the climate forecast and the flight schedule at Reagan Nationwide Airport. Higher take a look at Waze in the event that they’re flying into Dulles. See if the flu or one other spherical of COVID burns by means of Congress.
Sure. Understanding whether or not somebody is for or towards a given invoice or modification is at all times vital in Congress. However what supersedes that’s whether or not they’re truly current.
