Democrats on Tuesday flipped an Iowa state Senate seat in a district Donald Trump carried by 21 share factors only a few months earlier, an unimaginable particular election consequence that will function an early warning sign for Republicans in regards to the 2026 midterms.
Democrat Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Kate Whittington, 52% to 48%, in a particular election for Senate District 35—a rural seat positioned on the state’s jap aspect.
In November 2022, Republican Chris Cournoyer defeated her Democratic opponent, 61% to 39%, on this identical seat—making Zimmer’s win an enormous shift towards Democrats. (Cournoyer resigned the seat to turn out to be Iowa’s lieutenant governor, creating the emptiness.)
Zimmer’s win ought to give Republicans a case of heartburn since particular election outcomes usually correlate with the result within the subsequent midterm election.
Democrats noticed an analogous overperformance in particular elections in 2017, after Trump took workplace the primary time. These particular election victories turned out to be the precursor to Democrats taking again the U.S. Home and profitable massive in state-legislative races in 2018.
“This earthquake victory in Iowa puts Republicans across the country on notice,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Marketing campaign Committee, stated in a assertion. “In a ruby red district that Trump won by 21 points, DLCC candidate Mike Zimmer clinched a comfortable win against his extreme MAGA opponent. Tonight’s win marks the first flip of the cycle and builds on key majority-making wins in Virginia earlier this month. The DLCC is starting the new cycle strong just a month into 2025—from battlegrounds to Republican territory. We have dozens more special elections on the horizon—we’re only just getting started.”
It wasn’t simply Zimmer who overperformed in a particular election on Tuesday.
In Minnesota, Democrats gained a state Senate district by a 91%-to-9% margin to win a majority within the chamber. In November, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried this identical district, with 83% to Trump’s 14%—making Tuesday’s outcomes a large swing towards Democrats, based on knowledge from the Downballot.
Finally, Zimmer’s efficiency additionally offers Democrats hope in upcoming congressional particular elections.
Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is anticipated to depart her seat to be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, and her district’s partisanship is just like that of the Iowa state Senate seat Democrats simply gained.
“Democrats just flipped a Trump +21 Iowa state Senate seat in the first special election since Trump assumed office. Of note: New York’s 21st District, which Elise Stefanik is vacating soon, was also Trump +21 in 2024,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the election-analysis outlet Inside Elections, wrote in a submit on X.
