Labor strategist Steve Rosenthal says Kamala Harris fared higher with union voters than headlines counsel — and descriptions the labor motion’s path ahead.
By Kalena Thomhave, for Capital & Essential
Earlier than the election, a number of headlines advised that union voters had deserted the Democratic Get together for Donald Trump. And although Trump did certainly win the presidential election on Nov. 5 with many rank-and-file union members’ assist, he didn’t win union voters general. What’s extra, Steve Rosenthal, who has labored as an electoral strategist within the labor motion for greater than 40 years, thinks the political coin may flip once more as quickly as 2026.
A former political director of the AFL-CIO, the place he helped revitalize labor’s political affect, Rosenthal focuses on partaking union members and working-class voters. He’s at the moment president of the Organizing Group, a political consulting agency that works with labor unions to assist them get out the vote and win campaigns. The agency runs In Union, a voter mobilization program that reached 1.5 million largely white working-class voters this yr within the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in addition to Ohio. After Kamala Harris’ loss, Rosenthal believes the labor motion wants to start out getting ready now for the anti-worker modifications which will come from a second Trump administration — and in addition for the subsequent election.
This interview has been edited for brevity and readability.
Capital & Essential: I would as properly ask the query that everybody is asking in regards to the election: What occurred?
Steve Rosenthal: For me, probably the most telling numbers got here out of the AP VoteCast ballot. Voters who rated the financial system glorious or good — 36% of the voters — voted for Harris 82 to 17. Those that stated the financial system was not so good or poor — 63% of the voters — voted for Trump 69 to 29. In case you return to 2020, [the poll results were] nearly the precise reverse of that — 43% stated the financial system was glorious or good, [and they] voted for Trump 81 to 18. The 57% of the voters who stated the financial system was not so good or poor voted for Biden 77 to 21.
As lots of people have identified, the financial system was the No. 1 difficulty by far for voters. In the event that they thought that issues have been going OK, they voted for the incumbent [party in] Kamala Harris, and in the event that they thought that issues weren’t going properly with the financial system, they voted for the change candidate, which was Trump. For lots of voters, financial points — forgive the expression — trump fascism, democracy and selection — the cornerstone of the Harris marketing campaign. I feel to some voters, [arguments on] these points have been much less credible as a result of they lived by way of 4 years of Trump. To me, that’s the prime line abstract. I don’t imagine there was any big realignment [or evidence of] a long-term conservative shift.
After I was the political director on the AFL-CIO from 1996 to 2002, a part of my rap was that the one white working-class voters who have been voting for Democrats have been in unions. It was true then, and it’s largely true right this moment. And the union vote has truly gotten slightly worse. There has not been sufficient consideration through the years to the decline within the variety of union members and, due to this fact, union voters, and what that has meant for Democrats. I’m comfortable to see folks speaking in regards to the Democrats needing to change into the occasion of working folks once more.
“It’s not that the party doesn’t stand for workers anymore; it’s that the party leadership is not getting in the trenches with workers anymore.”
On the union vote, there was lots of media dialogue about how union members are migrating to Trump regardless of the Biden administration doing a lot for unions.
First off, union members voted for Harris in fairly sturdy numbers. Throughout the three blue wall states, [there was a] vital efficiency by union members.
In Pennsylvania, union members made up 18% of the voters. So, nearly one out of 5 votes forged got here from union households, they usually voted 52 to 47 for Harris, which is healthier than the Biden vote was in 2020, [when] Biden misplaced union households to Trump 49 to 50 in Pennsylvania. So, she truly did higher. In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris received union voters 53 to 46 — higher than Clinton did in 2016 and never fairly nearly as good as Biden did in 2020, however nonetheless a nine-point margin amongst union voters within the state. In Michigan, Harris received [union voters] 55 to 44 — not fairly nearly as good as Biden did in 2020, however a lot better than Clinton in 2016.
Trump has eroded the union vote slightly bit, however not in substantial numbers. The media rush to judgment earlier than the election based mostly on some polls suggesting that union members had deserted the Democrats, it’s simply improper.
What are your ideas on unions just like the Teamsters not endorsing Harris?
The Teamsters, as was properly reported, stayed impartial. So did the firefighters. However there have been 50 unions that supported Kamala Harris.
The Teamsters launched a ballot that stated that [nearly] 60% of their members have been supporting Trump, and [indicated] that’s why they determined to remain impartial. I’ve seen lots of union member polls over the greater than 40 years I’ve been doing this work. Unions may begin off with their members behind 10, 15, or 20 factors. However then you definitely put your program into gear and talk together with your members — on this case, for instance, level out that Trump helps right-to-work and that Trump ran one of the vehemently anti-union administrations within the historical past of the nation. After which distinction that with Harris’ report and the truth that Harris forged the deciding vote on the laws that saved the pensions for a whole lot of 1000’s of union members, together with Teamsters.
It was inexcusable that the union didn’t take the chance to speak to their members and clarify to them what was at stake on this election. As a result of if they’d completed that, they’d have moved these numbers. No union chief may take a look at these two candidates and with any diploma of honesty counsel that certainly one of them wouldn’t be higher for working folks.
Do you may have ideas on how one can reconcile how the financial system is doing versus how folks really feel the financial system is doing? Plainly folks’s private experiences don’t essentially match up with what the headlines say in regards to the financial system.
I feel that’s a part of why the Harris marketing campaign tread flippantly on selling a number of the information on how inflation was down, as a result of folks weren’t feeling that.
There’s a component there in regards to the message and the messenger. It’s not that the occasion doesn’t stand for staff anymore; it’s that the occasion management isn’t getting within the trenches with staff anymore. Their accomplishments are partially paid brief shrift as a result of there’s an enormous diploma of cynicism general about each events and politics usually. Working a billion {dollars} in TV adverts aimed toward working folks to attempt to say to them “We’re with you” — on the heels of 30 years of NAFTA and different commerce offers and standing [with] firms, and never getting within the trenches with staff?
There’s a distinction between what the occasion is doing and preventing for and what folks really feel and see and perceive.
Biden was, by all accounts, probably the most pro-union president in our lifetimes. It have to be extremely insulting to President Biden, Vice President Harris [and others in the administration], who’ve completed a lot over the previous few years for unions and staff, to be listening to that the occasion has deserted them.
“Every four years the labor movement has the potential to play an outsized role in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.”
You stated that Democrats should be doing the work within the trenches with staff. What does that appear like?
I feel it’s strolling picket strains. I feel it’s displaying up at union halls. I feel it’s gathering teams of working folks collectively and sitting with them and listening to them — doing city corridor conferences round your district or state and listening to what folks must say. It means standing united with working folks and letting them see who’s actually on their facet.
Over the subsequent couple of years, it’s going to be standing sturdy in opposition to what’s going to be a vicious assault on a spread of employee’s rights. There are going to be assaults on [the Occupational Safety and Health Administration], additional time pay, the Nationwide Labor Relations Board, funding the Truthful Labor Requirements Act, and federal staff’ unions.
What has been your method to mobilizing union and working-class voters?
With our voter engagement program, In Union, we offer voters with a yr of data — we don’t simply begin speaking to them across the election. We give them tips about their households saving cash, we offer them with details about unions on the entrance strains, we give them methods to carry politicians accountable and to combat again. After which we progressively get into speaking in regards to the election itself. We by no means make endorsements, however we offer folks with good, sound info and well-documented citations.
How do you see that work evolving over the subsequent few years?
As loopy because it sounds, it’s not too quickly to start out [work for] 2026 within the Blue Wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In two of the states there shall be open governors’ races, and [Gov. Josh] Shapiro shall be up for reelection in Pennsylvania. After which — it sounds foolish for me to speak about 2028, however each 4 years the labor motion has the potential to play an outsized position in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
So what we have to do isn’t wait till October 2026 or September 2028 and begin speaking with union members [about] defending staff’ rights. Folks need to be engaged. Union members will willingly make telephone calls. They’ll discuss to their elected officers. They’ll go to city corridor conferences. They’re extra small-d democratic than most voters as a result of they expertise [democracy] of their unions [when] they elect native union officers and vote on contracts.
We have to begin now. There’s an excessive amount of at stake for working folks with this incoming administration to not begin partaking folks in January.
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