Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American College typically referred to as the Nostradamus of presidential elections, has two notes for you: there isn’t a such factor as an October shock and Kamala Harris continues to be set to win.
Showing on CNN, Lichtman mentioned: “Nothing has modified. The largest fantasy in American politics is the so-called October shock. I’ve all the time issued my predictions earlier than then, and by no means change them.
He continued: “In 2016 for example, we had the biggest October surprise, Donald Trump on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a lot of women coming out and saying: ‘yeah, he did that to me.’ Even Republicans were saying he was finished. I did not change my prediction of a Trump win.”
Lichtman was referring to an Entry Hollywood tape leaked in early October lower than a month away from election day, again in 2016 when he was operating in opposition to Hillary Clinton. Trump was heard bragging in vulgar phrases about girls. And look how that turned out. Lichtman has an virtually excellent monitor file of calling presidential elections over the previous 4 a long time. This election yr, he’s predicting a Harris win, and he isn’t altering course, regardless of feeling extra anxious about it than ever earlier than.
“I have never experienced the kind of hate I’ve had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. I’ve had hate that’s scurrilous, vulgar, threatening, violent…We’ve had to notify the police we’ve had to fortify our home. It’s been terribly upsetting.”
He continued: “The other thing is, I believe democracy is on the line in this election. If I’m wrong, so be it. You know, I think being wrong once is not going to discredit my system, but I think if I’m wrong, then our democracy is in very serious peril. Democracy is precious, but it can be destroyed and it’s almost always destroyed from within. And unfortunately, the trend of this century has been the decline of democracy, all over the world. And I’m worried about our country.”
In nationwide polls, Harris has the tiniest little bit of lead on Trump, but it surely actually is neck-and-neck. Both means, even when it’s a fantasy, what was this yr’s so-called October shock for the Trump marketing campaign? Possibly the rally at Madison Sq. Backyard? A whole lot of headlines got here out of that one, however comic Tony Hinchcliffe’s feedback about Puerto Rico could take the cake.
Democrats after all ran with it. However, Trump claimed he had “done more for Puerto Rico than any president by far, nobody close,” later including: “I will deliver the best future for Puerto Ricans and for Hispanic Americans. Kamala will deliver you poverty and crime.” Fortune’s Shawn Tully reported that Trump blew an enormous lead and that rally began the drop.
For the Harris marketing campaign, her billionaire surrogate Mark Cuban could have delivered a kind of October shock, the final day of the month, too. On The View, when requested what he thinks about Trump seemingly not calling on former presidential candidate Nikki Haley for assist, he mentioned: “Donald Trump, you never see him around strong, intelligent women. Ever. It’s just that simple. They’re intimidating to him. He doesn’t like to be challenged by them.”
It appeared that he was talking concerning the individuals Trump chooses to have round him on the marketing campaign path, however Cuban acquired numerous warmth for what he mentioned. He later apologized for and clarified his feedback to counsel he is aware of many robust, clever girls who’re voting for Trump, who help Trump, and who’ve labored with Trump.
Election day is tomorrow. We’ll see if Lichtman referred to as it proper—once more.
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