Collect spherical, everybody! It’s that point of the cycle: Let’s lay the playing cards on the desk and see simply how mistaken we’re after all of the votes are counted.
I’ll go first.
President
Kamala Harris: 309
Donald Trump: 229
I’ve Harris profitable the Blue Wall, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (which is price one electoral vote), all of Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada. I used to be going to cede Nevada to Trump, however The Nevada Impartial’s Jon Ralston, who has a stellar report of predicting outcomes in his state, gave Harris the narrowest of edges on Monday, predicting she’d win by 0.3 proportion factors.
Right here, I’ll go additional, guaranteeing my repute suffers much more after I get a few of these mistaken:
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Harris +3
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Harris +10
Nevada: Harris +0.01
North Carolina: Harris +1
Pennsylvania: Harris +3
Wisconsin: Harris +5
I can’t consider I’m distancing myself from famed pollster Ann Selzer in Iowa, however I don’t see Harris profitable the state. If Harris pulls it off, she’s additionally profitable Alaska and Ohio—and perhaps even Texas and Florida. And I see nothing suggesting these states will flip. I do assume Harris loses it by far lower than Trump’s 8-point margin of victory in 2020. I’m going to say Trump +3. Trump gained Maine’s 2nd District by 7.5 factors in 2020. I feel Harris flips it.
There’s a state of affairs wherein pollsters have merely missed how offended and motivated older white girls are by the Supreme Court docket overturning Roe v. Wade—similar to how these pollsters missed Trump’s offended white working-class vote in 2016. And if that occurs, we are going to get that blowout Harris victory. And there’s a state of affairs wherein as soon as once more there’s a hidden Trump vote—pollsters struggled to achieve his voters prior to now, in spite of everything—or perhaps these younger bros he’s attempting to courtroom get their asses to the polls.
There’s additionally a state of affairs the place Harris will get to 270 with simply the Blue Wall (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the Nebraska district) whereas dropping the Solar Belt battlegrounds.
I like my “slightly favorable environment for Harris” state of affairs finest.
Senate
Oof, it is a robust one. We’re beginning with a slim Democratic management over the chamber, at 51-49, and we’re down one in West Virginia since unbiased Joe Manchin, who caucuses with the Democrats, is retiring. Meaning we’re mainly beginning at 50-50.
The standard knowledge is that Montana Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is a useless man strolling, however keep in mind that leaked Senate Republican memo of their inside polling? It was apprehensive about Tester nonetheless being within the recreation, polling simply 4 factors behind Republican Tim Sheehy. I’ve heard from individuals who would know that he’s gone from being down double digits to being down within the low single digits. He’s the underdog, little question, however Sheehy has had a brutal remaining week.
I don’t assume every other incumbent Democrats will lose. So what do I feel? Lots hinges on that shock Iowa ballot from Selzer. If older white girls are certainly swinging that closely for Democrats, that has implications for not simply Montana but additionally the Nebraska Senate race, the place unbiased Dan Osborn is shockingly shut to the upset of the cycle.
My mind says: They each fall quick, and it’s a 51-49 Republican Senate. However the hell with my mind. My coronary heart calls for a voice! Democrats lose West Virginia and choose up Nebraska and no different incumbent loses. (That features Republican incumbents in Florida and Texas, the place Democrats are inside vary of surprising upsets.)
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49
That one goes to get me in bother. …
Home
This one I’m certain of: Democrats take the Home. The margin? Most likely nearer than we’d like.
Democrats: 220
Republicans: 215
I can pretty confidently work out how Democrats get to 220. If Selzer is true about Iowa, nevertheless, add one other 5-10 seats to the Democrats’ whole.
Notice that I’m usually an optimistic man, so be forewarned. And naturally, none of this issues if we don’t end robust with the perfect nationwide get-out-the-vote operation in historical past.
Your flip!
