Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is staring down the largest political risk of his profession: a MAGA-fueled major problem from state Legal professional Normal Ken Paxton.
Paxton kicked off his Senate bid on April 8, asserting it on Fox Information with host Laura Ingraham and blasting Cornyn’s “lack of production” in additional than twenty years on the job.
“We have another great U.S. senator, Ted Cruz, and it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support [President] Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way,” Paxton mentioned. “And that’s what I plan on doing.”
The factor is, Cornyn has been reliably conservative and constant to Trump. However that received’t cease this from possible turning into one of many ugliest, costliest GOP primaries in current Texas historical past—a full-on proxy conflict between the Republican institution and the MAGA wing. Trump hasn’t endorsed but, however he’s teasing that he’ll tip the scales earlier than the March 2026 major.
Cornyn has all the same old benefits: institution backing, a deep bench of donors, and almost $1.6 million raised in simply the primary quarter of this 12 months alone. Paxton jumped in after the first-quarter fundraising submitting deadline, so we’ll have to attend till July to see how a lot he’s raised.
However what Paxton might lack in money, he makes up for in chaos.
Final week, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Cornyn with a barely veiled jab at Paxton, who’s been dogged by authorized drama for years.
“John Cornyn is a leader who delivers on President Trump’s agenda and for the people of Texas in the U.S. Senate,” Scott mentioned. “He’s a proven fighter, man of faith, and essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”
Certainly, Paxton has confronted securities fraud fees, was impeached by the GOP-led Texas Home of Representatives for abuse-of-power allegations, and allegedly cheated on his spouse. One brutal Cornyn marketing campaign assertion put it plainly: “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”
Whereas Cornyn will not be a saint, subsequent to Paxton, he certain appears to be like like one. Paxton—whom Trump as soon as known as “a very talented guy”—attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the Capitol riot. He additionally tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election outcomes, and extra just lately, he oversaw Texas’ first arrests underneath the state’s post-Roe v. Wade abortion ban. Generally, he’s a strolling ethics violation.
Nonetheless, Paxton has constructed a loyal following among the many Texas GOP’s far-right base, which stood by him throughout his Republican-led impeachment in 2023. A January ballot from the College of Houston, as an illustration, confirmed 36% of Texas GOP voters would “definitely” take into account voting for him, edging out Cornyn (32%). And a few polling has been even starker: A February ballot from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates had Paxton up greater than 20 proportion factors over Cornyn—and, sadly, profitable in a common election.
Even Texas’ different senator isn’t backing Cornyn. As a substitute, Cruz is enjoying impartial, possible as a result of he’s learn the identical surveys.
“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz mentioned to reporters just lately. “I respect them both, and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.” (Translation: Cruz is hedging.)
Republican voters nominating Paxton isn’t with out dangers, although.
Axios stories GOP strategists are warning Paxton may give Democrats their finest shot at flipping the seat, regardless that Democrats haven’t received a Senate race in Texas since 1988. In 2024, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred misplaced to Cruz by over 8 factors. (Allred is reportedly additionally contemplating a Senate run in 2026.)
Republicans are nervous sufficient that Senate Majority Chief John Thune is privately pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, based on CNN.
However Cornyn’s received vulnerabilities that MAGA world loves to use, like how he backed help to Ukraine and supported a bipartisan gun-reform invoice after a gunman killed 19 college students and two academics at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary College. That alone may be sufficient for Paxton to slap him with the dreaded “RINO” label and journey away with the bottom.
Cornyn might have the donors, the celebration brass, and the resume—however in at present’s GOP, that will not be sufficient. If Trump backs Paxton, Cornyn’s lengthy Senate profession could possibly be toast. And if Paxton wins? Democrats might lastly have a (slim) shot at flipping a Senate seat in Texas.
Both approach, this major is shaping as much as be a MAGA-fueled circus. Go the popcorn.
