Survey Says is a brand new weekly column rounding up three of an important polling developments or information factors it’s essential to learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Every day Kos reporting, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Republicans all of a sudden assume the economic system is on the up
Bear in mind when President Donald Trump railed in opposition to the economic system and promised he’d “fix” it? Apparently, for Republicans, all it took was Trump successful the election to determine the economic system wasn’t so unhealthy in any case.
Polling from Civiqs reveals that on Jan. 24, 2024, 66% of Republican voters rated the nationwide economic system as “very bad” and one other 28% mentioned it was “fairly bad”—numbers that remained pretty steady till Election Day 2024.
As of this previous Wednesday, simply 48% of Republican voters now imagine the economic system is “very bad,” in keeping with Civiqs’ polling—an 18-percentage-point lower. Lots of them appear to have slipped to pondering the economic system is simply “fairly bad,” which elevated by 13 factors, to 41%.
On the one hand, this isn’t very shocking. Trump is experiencing a honeymoon interval buoyed by Republicans’ pleasure about his win in 2024. And whereas the reversal in voters’ attitudes is unquestionably heady for Republican lawmakers now, it may backfire. Voters wish to see decrease costs underneath Trump, which suggests their views towards him may bitter if that doesn’t occur.
And it’s wanting dicey. In December, Trump admitted it might be “very hard” for him to decrease grocery prices. In the meantime, the value of eggs is hovering, and a few main retailers are planning to increase their costs if Trump enacts his brutal, long-promised tariffs.
What’s sentiment like throughout the aisle, although? The share of Democrats who say the economic system is in fine condition is about the identical as on Election Day, in keeping with Civiqs: over 50% say it’s “fairly good” and round 20% say “very good.”
Republicans assist price-raising tariffs
In October, Trump mused at a marketing campaign occasion, “To me, the world’s most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs. It’s my favorite word. It needs a public relations firm.”
Trump is correct about one factor: People aren’t eager on tariffs. Solely 30% of registered voters have a positive view of them, in keeping with new polling from Navigator Analysis. Forty-three % have an unfavorable view, whereas 27% are uncertain.
Worse, a plurality of Republican registered voters (47%) assume it’s doubtless tariffs will result in increased costs on frequent items. Majorities of impartial (63%) and Democratic voters (85%) agree.
Earlier this week, Trump mentioned he was contemplating imposing a 25% tariff on items imported from Canada and Mexico as quickly as Feb. 1. He’s additionally toying with implementing a ten% tariff on Chinese language imports.
Voters expressed quite a lot of considerations over Trump’s plans, in keeping with Navigator. Total, 41% listing value will increase on the center class as a prime concern, with 33% involved that it might be “a new tax on almost everything we buy.” One other 29% are frightened that overseas nations would retaliate by imposing tariffs of their very own.
Partisan variations drove the outcomes of the ballot. Simply 12% of Democrats say they view tariffs favorably, in contrast with 50% of Republicans who say the identical. That is considerably stunning contemplating a plurality of Republicans (41%) additionally say the tariffs, if enacted, would trigger the price of issues to go up.
Republicans could also be extra pro-tariff as a result of the proposal is coming from Trump. However what in the event that they increase costs, as anticipated, or make America much less aggressive globally?
GOP voters appear to be ignoring these very doubtless realities and as a substitute are holding onto hope that tariffs will assist American jobs and manufacturing. Based on the survey, 69% of Republicans assume tariffs could be “worth it” if it completed these two objectives. Simply 21% of Democrats and 29% of impartial voters agree.
In his inaugural handle, Trump mentioned he would “overhaul” the U.S. commerce system to “protect American workers and families.” However the broad objection to tariffs, particularly on the left and amongst independents, suggests the president would possibly quickly have a PR disaster on his fingers.
People credit score Trump for ceasefire
Final week, Israel and Hamas tentatively agreed on a ceasefire deal, which incorporates releasing hostages and halting the brutal warfare that decimated a lot of the Gaza Strip. If all goes to plan, there can be no preventing in Gaza for not less than six weeks and dozens of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners can be freed.
After a deal was introduced by negotiators, Trump tried to take sole credit score for it. As absurd as his declare was, People appear to largely agree along with his spin.
A new report from Information for Progress finds that 49% of doubtless voters credit score Trump greater than Biden for the ceasefire. Solely 44% credit score Biden extra, despite the fact that the present deal mirrors one the now-former president proposed final 12 months.
Most of that’s pushed by partisanship. An awesome majority of Democrats (82%) say Biden must be credited extra, whereas an virtually equal variety of Republicans (85%) give Trump plaudits. Independents lean towards crediting Trump, although, with 53% crediting him extra and solely 38% crediting Biden extra.
Furthermore, Information for Progress finds that Biden ended his presidency with a -18-point approval ranking on his dealing with of the Israel-Hamas battle, whereas Trump begins his new time period with a +12-point approval ranking on the problem.
Whereas it’s a matter of dispute whether or not Trump deserves full or half or 10% credit score, it’s clear that he helped in some approach. First, Trump warned that “all hell” would break unfastened within the Center East if Hamas didn’t launch the hostages earlier than his inauguration. Second, Trump’s workforce was concerned within the negotiation course of and pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions and conform to the deal.
In the meantime, the ballot additionally finds that 78% of doubtless voters not less than considerably assist the ceasefire deal. And that sentiment is true throughout get together strains, with 84% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 73% of Republicans on board.
Any updates?
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Every day Kos has extensively coated the GOP’s campaign in opposition to variety, fairness, and inclusion packages. Nonetheless, almost half of People (48%) have a positive view of DEI packages, in keeping with new polling from YouGov. And solely 29% have an unfavorable view of the packages.
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The outdated guard of the Democratic Occasion appears largely unwilling to go the torch to its youthful members, as Every day Kos reported in December. However Congress itself has improved in not less than one respect: 26% of its voting members establish as a race or ethnicity apart from non-Hispanic White, in keeping with the Pew Analysis Heart. That makes the 119th Congress essentially the most racially and ethnically various one to this point—however nonetheless not consultant of the nation at giant, which is 58% non-Hispanic white.
Vibe test
Donald Trump begins his new time period as president with 53% of registered voters having an unfavorable view of him, whereas 45% have a positive view, in keeping with Civiqs information as of Friday.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
