– by New Deal democrat
A couple of days in the past, Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser posted the beneath graphs evaluating the time that arduous vs. mushy information reacted to financial shocks:
As you realize, I’ve been arduous “high frequency” information to see if any of the consequences of Tariff-palooza! have proven up but.
And up to now, the indicators are meager.
Right here is that this morning’s replace of shopper retail spending YoY from Redbook:
Within the final week, it has slowed all the way down to a 5.4% enhance YoY, about common for the previous 12 months.
And I received’t even trouble with the graph of restaurant reservations, one of many best issues for shoppers to chop again on. Suffice it to say that they’re up about 8% YoY.
If shoppers aren’t slicing again on their discretionary spending, what about results on the availability aspect?
Right here is the newest graph from the AAR of rail site visitors for the week of Could 10, displaying each the comparability of the identical week YoY, and cumulatively this yr up to now vs. 2024:
The one signal of weak point right here is that originally of April cumulative 2025 intermodal site visitors was greater by 8.7% YoY. Since then, virtually each week that quantity has declined, such that final week it was solely up 7.9%.
And what about transport? A month in the past there was a flurry of reporting about collapsing inbound ship site visitors. So, I’ve been listening to the weekly inbound numbers for the Port of Los Angeles.
Right here’s what the final 7 weeks seem like in TEU volumes:
WEEK. 2025. 2024
4/26. 119.8. 76.8
5/3. 85.5. 95.5
5/10. 74.9. 111.4
5/17. 86.6. 98.6
5/24. 103.1. 66.0
5/31. 60.8. 91.9
6/7. 96.1. 98.9
TOTAL 626.8 638 (-1.9%)
Ex-4/26 507.0. 562.0 (-9.8%)
Observe that the site visitors that arrived throughout the week of April 26 most likely began its journey earlier than “Liberation Day,” which is why I included the second determine. Besides, whereas there was a decline, it has not been as drastic as first reported.
And Wall Road has rebounded sharply on the “TACO” commerce, which stands for “T—-p Always Chickens Out”:
As of the shut yesterday, the S&P 500 was solely down -2.9% from its all time excessive.
The underside line is that up to now virtually no arduous information is reflecting an influence from Tariff-palooza! – not less than, not but.
Actual retail gross sales flip down in April, however proceed to mirror shoppers’ front-running of tariffs – Offended Bear by New Deal democrat
