How Ted Cruz pulled off a decisive win and saved his White Home hopes afloat

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Within the weeks main as much as Election Day, a sequence of polls discovered that U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz was in a well-recognized place: preventing for political survival in a state the place different Republicans had been routinely dominant.

However Cruz’s workforce felt assured. They had been higher positioned this election cycle total and so they’d recognized what they noticed as their ace within the gap: Democratic challenger Colin Allred’s report on transgender rights — particularly, the problem of transgender kids taking part in in youth sports activities. The 12 months earlier than, Allred, a Dallas congressman, had voted towards GOP laws that proposed chopping off federal funds for varsity athletic packages that allowed “a person whose sex is male” to take part in ladies’s sports activities. The legislation outlined intercourse as “based solely on a person’s reproductive biology and genetics at birth.”

Cruz and his allied political teams blitzed the airwaves with adverts highlighting that vote and Allred’s different stances in favor of transgender rights. The adverts, typically that includes imagery of boys competing towards women in sports activities, mirrored what Cruz’s workforce had discovered from focus teams and polling: Among the many few million voters they’d recognized who had been really on the fence, the transgender sports activities subject was only in driving assist to Cruz, mentioned Sam Cooper, a strategist for Cruz’s marketing campaign.

“We felt like it was a double whammy for us, that it was an issue that, one, we had Allred dead to rights on, and two, it cut across all of our persuasion universes,” Cooper mentioned. “It helped us with college-educated whites, which we needed, and also helped us with Hispanics,” for whom it was “the No. 1 persuadable issue.”

Ultimately, Cruz walloped Allred by almost 9 share factors, profitable a majority of the statewide Latino vote and proving the polls lifeless flawed. Although the anti-trans adverts could have contributed, Cruz additionally acquired a wholesome increase from GOP nominee Donald Trump — who carried Texas by a whopping 14 factors — and from voters’ bitter outlook on the financial system and immigration beneath Democratic administration. About half of Texas voters cited a type of as an important concern driving their vote, a bloc amongst which Cruz received greater than 85%, in response to exit polls.

Contemporary off a 2018 reelection the place he narrowly prevented turning into the primary Texas Republican to lose statewide in a long time, Cruz is rising from final week’s win together with his greatest jolt of political momentum in years, primed for a good larger position on the nationwide stage that might permit him to put the groundwork for a future presidential run. He’s in line to move the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee beneath Trump’s presidency. And he’ll retain a giant megaphone together with his nationally syndicated podcast and as a fixture within the conservative TV and discuss radio ecosystem.

The decisive win “reestablished what we’ve always known,” Cooper mentioned. “He’s one of the most popular politicians in Texas and, despite what folks say, is going to be very hard to beat now and into the future.”

Speak of the following presidential race is years away, however Cruz has made clear that one other White Home run is on the desk. And a minimum of for now, he has preserved his place as a possible contender— not simply by profitable, but additionally avoiding a second straight nail-biter, following his tight 2018 reelection over Beto O’Rourke, that might have raised questions on his capability to compete on the nationwide stage.

“I think this performance keeps him in the conversation nationally,” mentioned Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas who’s unaffiliated with Cruz. “If he would have won narrowly, his political standing would be very different than what it is now, which is resounding defeat of a Democratic opponent and the ability to say, ‘We helped keep Texas red.’”

How Cruz received

For Cruz, the decisive win was particularly candy coming off a 2018 cycle that had made him appear weak.

This time, Cruz mounted a extra aggressive fundraising operation heading into the marketing campaign, restocking his battle chest to assist him compete with the flood of Democratic money that got here pouring in like clockwork. He and his allies hit Allred early, tying the Dallas Democrat to get together standard-bearers Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who’re unpopular in Texas.

Cooper, the Cruz strategist, recognized two pivotal moments within the marketing campaign. The primary was in late September when Allred signed onto a letter, together with dozens of different Home Democrats, that urged GOP lawmakers to take away from an annual protection coverage invoice restrictions on “medically necessary care for transgender service members or their family members.” A professional-Cruz tremendous PAC made that the centerpiece of a extensively circulated advert, that includes a veteran who misplaced each his legs in Vietnam calling Allred “too extreme for Texas” as a result of he “demanded sex-change operations in the military.”

The opposite key second additionally revolved round transgender rights. In response to the adverts attacking his stance on transgender points, Allred minimize his personal advert accusing Cruz of mendacity about his place.

“Let me be clear: I don’t want boys playing girls’ sports, or any of this ridiculous stuff that Ted Cruz is saying,” Allred said in the direct-to-camera spot, which started airing in early October.

Instances of transgender children attempting to play on sports activities groups are exceedingly uncommon, and examples of youngsters dropping out on athletic alternatives to their transgender friends are virtually solely confined to the faculty or skilled degree. Nonetheless, public polls have constantly discovered {that a} huge majority of Texans oppose the concept of permitting transgender ladies to compete in ladies’s sports activities.

Allred’s response was simple to refute, Cooper mentioned, as a result of the Cruz marketing campaign might level to contradictory examples within the Democrat’s voting report. From that time on, Cooper mentioned, the message was “not only is he radical, he’s also a liar.” Cruz countered with an advert highlighting Allred’s votes, together with his opposition to the 2023 GOP transgender sports activities invoice, and his signature on the letter opposing restrictions for transgender members of the army.

Such efforts had been a response to what Democrats noticed as assaults on the transgender group from not solely Republicans in Congress, but additionally state legislatures across the nation, the place GOP lawmakers have restricted transgender kids’s entry to gender-transitioning care and youth sports activities. Allred tried to articulate that in his lone televised debate with Cruz, saying that he merely believed “folks should not be discriminated against” and calling on Cruz to clarify “why he thinks they should.” However in the long run, it was Allred’s response advert that bought the lion’s share of the eye.

The problems surrounding transgender rights proved radioactive for Allred, in response to Cooper, who mentioned the marketing campaign had examined “a battery of issues” amongst focus teams of persuadable voters. No different concern prompted such intense reactions amongst voters or caught with them to the identical diploma — regardless that Texas lawmakers had already banned scholar athletes from taking part in on groups that didn’t match the intercourse they had been assigned at beginning.

Cruz’s workforce felt that Allred’s final actual likelihood to “draw blood,” Cooper mentioned, was within the televised debate held the week earlier than early voting started.

By the hour-long back-and-forth, Cruz repeatedly sought to tie Allred to Harris, saying the 2 “voted in favor of open borders over and over” and had been each accountable for fueling a surge in inflation beneath the Biden administration. Allred, in the meantime, attacked Cruz as a partisan bomb-thrower with few legislative accomplishments and blasted him for torpedoing “the toughest border security bill in a generation” earlier within the 12 months. Cruz additionally declined to stake out a place on Texas’ abortion ban and its lack of exceptions for pregnancies ensuing from rape or incest, which polls present {that a} majority of Texans favor.

General, although, Cruz’s workforce felt that he emerged from the bout unscathed and was in a robust place heading into early voting.

In addition they sensed that there was a political shift underway amongst Latino voters and felt that Cruz had an opportunity to win an outsized share of the bloc that had reliably favored Democratic candidates for many years. Although Cooper mentioned “the intensity of the switch was surprising” — a majority of Latino voters backed Trump and Cruz in Texas, exit polls discovered — the marketing campaign nonetheless labored to harness what appeared like a doable sea change. Cruz campaigned in South Texas the weekend earlier than Election Day, and earlier within the cycle poured thousands and thousands into an advert marketing campaign focusing on Latino voters with a mixture of English and Spanish-language promoting. One such advert — titled “El Valiente Senador,” or “The Brave Senator” in English — portrayed Cruz as a fighter battling excessive taxes and dealing to maintain Texas “free and safe.”

“It wasn’t just the cultural issues, it wasn’t just the economic issues,” Cooper mentioned. “It was the fact that he showed up. It wasn’t an accident that our fourth-to-last rally — Sunday night before the election, typically your biggest rally — was in McAllen.”

Upwards of 700 individuals packed right into a burger restaurant in downtown McAllen to listen to Cruz on the stump — reflecting the huge GOP surge that will be borne out days later within the Latino-dominated Rio Grande Valley and throughout a lot of Texas’ broader border area. The shift was notably putting within the valley, the four-county area on the southern tip of Texas the place Trump received a majority of the vote, eight years after drawing solely 29% there. Cruz ran barely behind Trump, dropping the Rio Grande Valley vote by 5.5 share factors after trailing O’Rourke there by 35 factors in 2018.

Cruz ended up defeating Allred by almost 1 million votes statewide, in response to unofficial tallies. The margin was about 5 share factors and almost 600,000 votes nearer than the presidential contest — suggesting that Allred might have overcome a a lot narrower Harris loss, as Democrats did in Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. However Senate Democrats additionally suffered a lot nearer losses in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio — leaving get together energy brokers to marvel if their thousands and thousands spent in Texas ought to have gone elsewhere.

“Pushing this thing to nearly double digits I don’t think was on anybody’s radar,” Cooper mentioned. “I mean, Chuck Schumer was claiming, literally, the day of the election, that they had Texas tied. He legitimately thought they had a shot here.”

Cruz’s political future

Together with his seat in Washington secured for an additional six years, Cruz has already turned to what comes subsequent. Talking on his podcast the day after the election, he outlined a handful of his high priorities for the following Congress, which could possibly be beneath unified GOP management if Republicans proceed their tempo to safe a slender majority within the Home.

Amongst them is renewing the GOP’s huge tax minimize package deal handed in 2017 throughout Trump’s first time period — a precedence that Cruz described as “the big kahuna” for the following Congress. If the Home stays in Republican fingers, Cruz predicted the GOP would prolong the tax breaks and make them “bigger and bolder.”

Beneath Republicans’ new Senate majority, Cruz is in line to chair the highly effective Senate Commerce Committee, the place he’s presently the highest Republican. The panel oversees numerous key White Home appointments and an enormous vary of industries and companies, together with telecommunications, transportation, aviation and the broad class of interstate commerce. The committee’s jurisdiction additionally consists of area journey and exploration and the web, placing Cruz in place to work with Elon Musk, the billionaire proprietor of the SpaceX rocket firm and X social media web site who emerged this 12 months as a strong GOP donor and influencer. The committee publish might additionally thrust Cruz into the middle of tradition battle clashes with Large Tech over on-line privateness and censorship which might be catnip to conservative voters.

After a marketing campaign the place he performed up his bipartisan credentials and touted assist from native Democratic officers, Cruz appeared in no temper to increase his hand to Democrats relegated to minority standing. When the Senate reconvenes, Cruz mentioned on his podcast, “I’ll be very curious if any Democrats are looking around going, maybe being wild-eyed, leftist, communist, America-hating lunatics is not a path to victory.”

Nonetheless, the coalition that powered Cruz’s reelection — which included historic Latino assist and little proof of main GOP defections — might type the makings of a future White Home bid, relying on how issues pan out main into 2028 and past, mentioned Steinhauser, the GOP strategist.

“I think that Cruz can make the argument, I’m your grassroots conservative candidate with some hard MAGA credentials, but I can also win a majority of Hispanic Texans, at least, and perhaps in other states,” Steinhauser mentioned. “I think that is a very strong argument.”

Cruz was a high contender within the 2016 GOP major and has been open about his future need to make one other White Home bid, telling the Texas Tribune a 12 months in the past, “I fully hope and expect to run again at some point.” However his instant path to the GOP nomination could possibly be just about sealed off if Vice President-elect JD Vance runs to succeed Trump and secures the president’s backing.

Steinhauser, although, mentioned issues are removed from predetermined.

“The presidential race is just gonna be wide open,” he mentioned. “I don’t think it’s JD Vance’s to lose, because a lot can happen. We don’t know what it’s going to look like a year from now. So if you’re Cruz, you’ve gotta feel pretty good about your future.”