Industrial manufacturing continues to slip
– by New Deal democrat
Industrial manufacturing declined for the third month in a row in November, down -0.1%, whereas October was revised downward one other -0.2%. Manufacturing manufacturing alternatively elevated 0.2% in November, however September and October had been revised downward a mixed -0.3%, so on internet this was one other -0.1% decline. They’re now down respectively -1.5% and -2.0% from their late 2022 highs:
Earlier than 2001 and particularly earlier than the Nice Recession, any YoY decline *at all times* coincided with or at the least instantly heralded a recession. However because the accession of China to common buying and selling standing in 1999, downturns of even -5% or extra, as in 2015-16 and 2018-19 haven’t essentially meant recession.
And as this close-up of the submit pandemic document present, on a YoY foundation manufacturing is simply down about -0.9%:
The financial system continues to be powered ahead by consumption of companies, and likewise by development spending. More and more that doesn’t embrace residential development, which as I’ve written a lot of occasions not too long ago is down from its most up-to-date peak to a stage which usually prior to now has meant recession. We’ll discover out extra about that tomorrow.
