– by New Deal democrat
The story continues to be “same old, same old” with unemployment claims.
Preliminary claims declined -2,000 final week to 227,000. The 4 week transferring common rose 1,000 to 231,500. With the everyday one week delay, persevering with claims rose 36,000 to 1.903 million:
The YoY story continues to be the identical as nicely. YoY preliminary claims had been up 3.2%, the 4 week common up 5.7%, and persevering with claims up 6.1%:
So the forecast for the quick future stays the identical too: continued enlargement, if considerably weak.
Lastly, let’s replace what this possible means for the development within the unemployment fee within the subsequent few months (purple, proper scale):
There is no such thing as a important upward strain on the unemployment fee, suggesting continued readings within the 4.1%-4.2% vary, tariff-palooza! allowing.
“Jobless Claims May 15 2025,” Offended Bear by New Deal democrat
