Washington — Not like the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has confronted a expensive and time-consuming course of to look on normal election ballots as an unbiased candidate.
Guidelines differ from state to state, however unbiased candidates usually have to gather hundreds of signatures or be supported by a minor get together so as to apply for poll entry.
Kennedy opted to run as an unbiased final October, abandoning his Democratic major bid. Since then, Democrats and Republicans have questioned whether or not the unbiased candidate would pull assist from their voters.
Kennedy’s operating mate, Nicole Shanahan, stated in a latest interview on the “Impact Theory” podcast that she and Kennedy are contemplating ending their marketing campaign and backing former President Donald Trump. Shanahan stated their presence within the race dangers serving to elect Vice President Kamala Harris “because we draw votes from Trump.”
“He’s a well-known name,” stated Dan Mallinson, an affiliate professor at Pennsylvania State College at Harrisburg. “He’s different than a lot of other third-party candidates that run.”
Matt Slocum / AP
To this point, Kennedy is on the poll in two of the seven battleground states — Michigan and North Carolina. Current CBS Information estimates present Harris and Trump are statistically tied in these two states, with Kennedy having 2% assist.
“Some of these states are such tight margins that it can matter,” Mallinson stated.
Democrats noticed a bump after swapping their nominee from President Biden to Harris, largely coming from voters who had beforehand expressed assist for Kennedy, in keeping with a Pew Analysis Middle ballot.
Polling from Marquette Regulation College discovered that when unbiased candidates had been included on the poll query, Trump had a barely bigger drop in assist than Harris. In an Emerson School ballot, Harris’ and Trump’s assist evenly decreased by two factors with third-party candidates on the poll. Kennedy’s assist dropped in latest months in each polls.
It’s typical of third-party candidates to see their ballot numbers drop because it will get nearer to Election Day, in keeping with Matthew Foster, a professor at American College.
“When you’re polling months beforehand, people’s choices are a bit mushy,” he stated. “They’re more willing to support a third-party candidate at that moment. But when the election comes down to the wire and it really becomes time for the decision, they tend to go either Republican or Democrat.”
Kennedy’s marketing campaign claims to have secured sufficient signatures in each state and Washington, D.C., aside from Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island and Wyoming.
Within the map beneath, states the place Kennedy’s marketing campaign says it has met the brink to look on the poll however are nonetheless awaiting official affirmation are gentle blue.
To this point, about half of states — these which might be darkish blue on the map — have confirmed that he’ll seem on the November poll.
New York is the one state the place he did not qualify after a choose stated Kennedy falsely claimed a New York residence on his nominating petitions. Kennedy is interesting the choice.
Even when he finally ends up on a majority of ballots, “he won’t make any impact if it’s not the battlegrounds,” Foster stated.
- Alaska
- California
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Hawaii
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Washington
- West Virginia
The place RFK Jr.’s poll standing is awaiting official affirmation:
- Alabama
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- Connecticut
- Florida
- Georgia
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Kansas
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- South Dakota
- Virginia
- Washington, D.C.
- Wisconsin
States the place he won’t be on the poll:
- New York
