With Canadians – and even Quebecers – rallying across the flag within the face of threats from the Trump administration, the sovereigntist Parti Québécois is struggling to search out its footing.
The Quebec opposition occasion has been main within the polls for greater than a 12 months, and chief Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to carry a 3rd referendum by 2030 if his occasion kinds authorities in subsequent 12 months’s election.
However U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation have shaken up the political panorama in Quebec. Help for independence is all of the sudden decrease than it has been in years, elevating questions on whether or not the PQ must pivot away from sovereignty.
For now, the occasion insists it’s staying the course. “We believe it’s something that inspires Quebecers to have people who are faithful to their convictions and their values,” Pascal Paradis, a PQ member of the nationwide meeting, stated in a current interview.
He stated it’s attention-grabbing to see Canadian leaders defend the nation’s sovereignty “tooth and nail” towards Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state. He in contrast the wave of nationalism to Quebec’s personal independence motion, questioning why it’s “good for Canada but not for Quebec.”
“We will stay true to our message,” he stated.
That might make the PQ weak. A current Léger ballot discovered help for Quebec independence had dipped to 29 per cent. Govt vice-president Sébastien Dallaire stated that’s across the lowest stage of help the polling agency has ever measured.
“It’s clearly related to the current context of increased patriotism in Canada, an increased feeling that we need to stick together and stand up to the United States,” he stated.
Get day by day Nationwide information
Get the day’s high information, political, financial, and present affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox as soon as a day.
Help for the Parti Québécois has additionally taken a success since late final 12 months, Dallaire stated, although the occasion continues to be main within the polls. To this point, it’s the Quebec Liberals – somewhat than the governing Coalition Avenir Québec – whose political fortunes have ticked up.
“The Liberal brand in general, both at the federal and the provincial level, has been bolstered by what’s happening,” Dallaire stated, including that the Liberals are “more associated with the fight for Canadian unity.”
However the dedication to sovereignty is central to the PQ’s id underneath the management of St-Pierre Plamondon. Dimitri Soudas, a political analyst and former director of communications for prime minister Stephen Harper, stated the 48-year-old lawyer is the primary PQ chief in a very long time who hasn’t been “wishy-washy” on independence.
St-Pierre Plamondon took the reins of the PQ in 2020, when it was on the point of collapse. The occasion had been lowered to 10 seats within the provincial legislature within the 2018 election, and would drop to a few in 2022. Paradis received a fourth seat in a 2023 byelection.
“At the time, the strategy was simple,” Soudas stated. “You have to crystallize the base.”
Since then, St-Pierre Plamondon has stood agency on his pledge to carry a referendum in a primary mandate, despite the fact that help for sovereignty has by no means climbed a lot above 35 per cent in recent times. However that dedication might now flip into an “Achilles heel” within the context of Trump’s threats, Soudas stated.
“If I was campaigning against them, I would campaign on one issue: the instability that the referendum would bring.”
Quebec Premier François Legault, whose recognition has waned after greater than six years in workplace, has been fast to grab the chance, arguing now isn’t the time to organize for a referendum.
However the PQ has not backed down. Final week, the occasion revealed a video on social media claiming the idea of Canadian unity is a fantasy and that Quebec can be higher positioned to defend its personal pursuits and shield its border if it separated from Canada. “An independent Quebec would be stronger,” the video says.
Paradis stated Canada has not offered a typical entrance to the USA, with provinces comparable to Ontario and Alberta solely looking for themselves. “The results show that there was no Canadian shield, that belonging to Canada did not protect us against the tariff threat,” he stated.
Antonine Yaccarini, a political analyst and former staffer for the PQ and the Coalition Avenir Québec, stated St-Pierre Plamondon’s occasion should discover a method to be taken extra significantly on financial issues, somewhat than simply on questions of id.
However she additionally believes the PQ ought to maintain regular on sovereignty. She stated there’s likelihood help for independence will rebound if Quebecers don’t really feel Ottawa has their pursuits at coronary heart.
“I really think these issues will resurface very quickly,” she stated. “And that Quebecers will look for someone to defend them.”
