Previewing U.S. girls’s basketball semifinal vs. Australia with an opportunity for eighth straight gold medal

Two world rivals will meet once more on Friday, as the USA girls’s basketball workforce goes up in opposition to the Australian Opals with a spot within the 2024 Paris Video games’ gold medal match on the road.

Crew USA, which is using a streak of 59 consecutive Olympic wins, superior to the semifinals with an 88-74 overcome Nigeria on Wednesday. Following an upset loss to Nigeria of their Olympic opener, the Opals have strung collectively three straight victories, together with Wednesday’s 85-67 quarterfinal determination over Serbia.

Whereas the U.S. girls have been the gold customary for basketball internationally, successful seven consecutive Olympic gold medals and 9 total, Australia has been a historic powerhouse alongside them. The Opals have medaled in 5 of the previous seven Summer time Video games, taking dwelling three silvers and two bronze, though their semifinal run in Paris marks the primary time they’ve superior previous the quarterfinals because the 2012 London Video games.

2012 additionally was the final time the legendary Lauren Jackson suited up on the Olympic stage for the inexperienced and gold — till now. Whereas Crew USA has 42-year-old, six-time Olympian Diana Taurasi, the Opals have Jackson, 43, showing in her fifth Video games and first in 12 years. Jackson has all the time medaled within the competitors, and although she has seen restricted motion thus far in France, she has an opportunity to proceed that streak this weekend.

Australia — which boasts six lively WNBA gamers — has loads of momentum, however the Opals are 0-20 all time in opposition to the U.S. senior nationwide workforce, together with 0-8 in Olympic competitors. In the course of the 5 Video games wherein they medaled, Australia misplaced to the U.S. both within the semifinals or the gold medal contest. The squads final met in 2020, when the People prevailed 79-55.

ESPN’s Alexa Philippou and Kevin Pelton break down a few of the urgent questions heading into the matchup.

play

Breanna Stewart credit Jackie Younger for jump-starting Crew USA

Breanna Stewart talks with Brian Windhorst after Crew USA’s 14-point win over Nigeria to advance to the semifinals.

Crew USA switched up its beginning 5 in opposition to Nigeria, with Jackie Younger instead of Diana Taurasi. Did the transfer repair its points within the backcourt?

Philippou: Beginning Younger instead of Taurasi — who had final come off the bench on the Olympics in 2004 — was the best transfer. With 15 factors in opposition to Nigeria, Younger seems to be carving out a job as Crew USA’s third scorer behind A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart. (Certainly, Younger is the one different U.S. participant averaging double figures at 10.3 factors per sport.) Younger, one among three Las Vegas Aces gamers within the beginning 5, confirmed off her 3-point taking pictures earlier in opposition to Germany, going 5-of-8. However whereas she went scoreless from deep on Wednesday, it was her skill to get downhill and hit from midrange that stood out, alongside together with her trademark protection within the backcourt. It took till the center of the second quarter for the U.S. to essentially put its foot on the fuel in opposition to Nigeria, however Younger’s aggression and power on each ends ought to proceed to pay dividends. And Taurasi appeared to do nicely off the bench, the place she stepped up as a facilitator with 4 assists.

Pelton: I’d like to see place to begin guard Chelsea Grey be a menace to attain. She missed all three of her shot makes an attempt within the quarterfinals, bringing Grey to 1-of-13 thus far through the Olympics. Remarkably, the U.S. outscored Nigeria by simply two factors in Grey’s 17:27, whereas all 4 different starters had a plus-minus of plus-17 or higher whereas on the court docket.

Nonetheless, as I discussed in our final roundtable, the U.S. girls can overcome one non-scorer within the beginning 5 as long as she is bringing one thing else to the desk. And Grey is together with her playmaking, having now totaled 22 assists in opposition to simply three turnovers. So, I don’t assume coach Cheryl Reeve must make additional adjustments.

What issues do the Australians pose, and what might make them a troublesome matchup?

Philippou: WNBA followers will likely be nicely aware of this Opals squad, which options the Seattle Storm‘s Ezi Magbegor and Sami Whitcomb, Minnesota Lynx‘s Alanna Smith, Los Angeles Sparks‘ Stephanie Talbot, Washington Mystics‘ Jade Melbourne and Indiana Fever‘s Kristy Wallace, plus New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello at the helm. Not only do the Opals have the talent to compete against Team USA. They have momentum and resolve following their disappointing start to the Olympics. Brondello has been pleased with her team’s poise and grit over the previous week, two qualities an opponent wants when dealing with the People.

The Opals, whose balanced assault boasts 5 gamers averaging at the least 8.0 PPG, can damage foes inside with Magbegor and Smith but additionally from the 3-point arc. Their 36.9% 3-point clip is one of the best within the Olympic area and far greater than Crew USA’s paltry 30.8%. Whitcomb and Cayla George, a 2023 WNBA champion whereas with the Las Vegas Aces, lead the workforce with eight and 7 treys, respectively.

Pelton: On paper, Australia is deeper and extra proficient than any workforce within the area save for the U.S. girls. We will debate one of the best worldwide participant on the Paris Video games, with Emma Meesseman (Belgium) and Satou Sabally (Germany) as robust candidates. However no workforce has a pair of gamers pretty much as good because the Opals’ frontcourt duo of Magbegor and Smith, each of whom would have been on my WNBA All-Star workforce this yr. (Magbegor, a 2023 All-Star, was not named to the workforce this season regardless of comparable manufacturing.) And no workforce outdoors the U.S. has almost as a lot WNBA expertise all through its roster.

Given all that expertise, it was surprising when Australia misplaced its opening sport to Nigeria then barely beat winless Canada. Of their previous two video games, we’ve seen the Opals we anticipated, as they beat topped France to advance to the knockout stage and led Serbia by as many as 28 in a lopsided quarterfinal victory.

A’Ja dishes to Stewie for 3. 🎯

LeBron approves.

📺 USA Community and Peacock pic.twitter.com/yI8kbWNUps

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 7, 2024

Can anybody cease Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson?

Pelton: No. But when anybody goes to comprise them, it’s the duo of Magbegor and Smith. Australia’s put up gamers rank second (Magbegor, 2.4) and fourth (Smith, 1.8) within the WNBA in blocks per sport and have the mobility to defend Stewart and Wilson on the perimeter. Magbegor is especially skilled in opposition to each opponents, having confronted Stewart in observe for 3 years as Storm teammates and matched up with Wilson within the 2022 WNBA semifinals.

The most important impediment for Magbegor and Smith is foul bother. Magbegor picked up three first-half fouls in opposition to Canada, and Smith had two within the first quarter versus France, limiting their minutes. Backup George is a troublesome, expert participant (she scored 18 factors in 24 minutes in opposition to Serbia) however nowhere close to as athletic on protection.

Philippou: Pelton brings up a sound concern. However given the expertise Stewart and Wilson have at this stage — Stewart goes for her third Olympic gold and Wilson her second, whereas Magbegor and Smith are showing of their first Video games — I’d anticipate the Crew USA tremendous duo to make the successful performs crucial in such a high-pressure state of affairs to advance to the ultimate.

Which of France and Belgium could be a harder opponent for Crew USA?

Pelton: I’m going with Belgium, which gave the U.S. girls their hardest Olympic check but. The People prevailed by 13 factors, though the margin was simply seven coming into the fourth quarter of a bunch stage sport performed in Lille, France, close to the border with Belgium. All this regardless of Belgium going simply 5-of-27 in 3-point taking pictures, with Julie Vanloo notably struggling from downtown whereas lacking 10 of her 11 makes an attempt. On Wednesday, the Mystics level guard went 3-of-5 from 3, scoring 13 factors with seven assists (albeit with 9 turnovers) as Belgium cruised previous Spain, the one different workforce apart from the U.S. that was unbeaten in pool play.

Philippou: Because the host nation with the gang on its aspect and loads of pleasure on the road, a tough defensive workforce in France wouldn’t be a pushover, both, particularly if Marine Johannes can go off like she did in opposition to Germany with 24 factors off the bench and with Gabby Williams main the best way on each ends.

Has Crew USA performed its finest basketball but?

Philippou: In-game consistency, particularly on offense, can nonetheless be a difficulty. There are occasions when the dearth of taking part in time collectively or Reeve’s tweaking with rotations/combos remains to be obvious. In any case, there’s a purpose why Sue Hen not too long ago stated on Carmelo Anthony’s podcast that USA Basketball is probably the most uncomfortable basketball she has ever performed. After a little bit of a sluggish begin, the U.S. finally led by 30 within the third quarter in opposition to Nigeria, however Reeve couldn’t have beloved how her workforce allowed the D’Tigress to make it a 14-point sport earlier than the ultimate buzzer. Via 4 video games, the People’ lack of 3-point taking pictures hasn’t actually been remedied, which may very well be a difficulty if opponents get sizzling from deep.

Crew USA can’t overlook any of the remaining groups within the area, however with a defensive id and offensive prowess led by Stewart and Wilson, it has proven it may put video games away when it must, one thing that ought to switch over into the ultimate two video games.

Pelton: On the flip aspect, I feel the taking pictures can be purpose to consider there’s one other gear for the U.S. girls. Collectively, the 12 gamers on the roster have mixed to shoot 33% on 3-point makes an attempt within the WNBA this season. That gained’t earn a “Splash Sisters” nickname any time quickly, but it surely’s additionally higher than Crew USA has managed from the shorter 3-point line in FIBA play.

Taurasi (1-of-7) and Jewell Loyd (2-of-10) are overdue to warmth up from lengthy vary. Look out in the event that they lastly do.