Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of a very powerful polling tendencies or knowledge factors it’s worthwhile to learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Each day Kos reporting, plus a vibe examine on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Progressives increase hell—and large cash
A brand new ballot of younger People alerts bother for the Democratic institution.
Amongst People ages 18 to 29, the approval score for congressional Democrats has plummeted 19 share factors since spring 2017—from 42% to merely 23% this spring—in response to Ipsos’ ballot for the Harvard Kennedy College’s Institute of Politics. In the meantime, congressional Republicans are holding regular: 28% approval in 2017 and 29% now.
So what do voters, younger and older, need as an alternative? Fundraising presents a touch.
As Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and different progressives advocate for a brand new route, a recent wave of rebel candidates is raking in critical money, signaling that many within the Democratic base are finished ready for daring management.
Based on knowledge from the Federal Election Fee, three progressives searching for to main incumbent Democrats raised over $70,000 within the first quarter of 2025, excluding the campaigns’ loans, offsets, and figures labeled “other other receipts” in FEC knowledge, and subtracting any refunds the campaigns might have issued.
Two of the three challengers outpaced their district’s incumbent: Kat Abughazeleh, working in Illinois’ ninth District, raked in $378,596, adopted by Elijah Manley, in Florida’s twentieth, with $273,389. The third is Saikat Chakrabarti ($71,239, in California’s eleventh), who was previously Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of workers and whose fundraising lags far behind the incumbent he’s difficult: former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
All three challengers current themselves as unapologetic fighters.
Manley, a 26-year-old substitute instructor and progressive activist, raised 18 instances what incumbent Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick did final quarter. He’s additionally sitting on over 40 instances additional cash readily available. Her poor numbers are probably tied to corruption allegations, however Manley’s haul speaks volumes both means.
Then there’s Kat Abughazaleh, a 26-year-old journalist and activist who raised the a lot of the three—and in only one week.
That’s largely because of her viral campaign-kickoff video, during which she challenged the Democratic Celebration to “grow a fucking spine.” The message clearly resonated amongst a section of the Democratic base stressed with growing older management.
The factor is, whereas Abughazaleh has spoken quite a bit about Illinois’ ninth District not having had a aggressive main in a long time, incumbent Rep. Jan Schakowsky is reportedly planning to announce in Could that she gained’t search one other time period. So change is coming to the district both means. And Abughazaleh—who moved to Illinois final yr and doesn’t but dwell within the district, which is technically allowed—is certain to face competitors from different Democrats with extra of a tie to the realm.
Nonetheless, her message has clearly resonated with donors—and so they’re not alone.
A Change Analysis ballot discovered that 90% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like a reasonable fighter over a quiet progressive, whereas an astonishing 95% would select a progressive fighter over a quiet reasonable. This desire holds throughout nearly all demographics.
The message is evident: Democrats don’t simply need new blood. They need somebody with a pulse.
Growth promised, bust delivered
Staring down a doable future of upper inflation and cost-raising tariffs, People have slapped President Donald Trump along with his worst-ever approval score on the financial system, in response to the brand new CNBC All-America Financial Survey.
Simply 43% of People approve of his financial efficiency, whereas 55% disapprove, placing him 12 factors underwater on web.
Whereas Trump can nonetheless depend on Republican voters’ assist (for now), impartial voters have turned sharply towards him, with approval down 23 factors from his common score in his first time period, in response to CNBC. Democrats gave him a punishing -90-point web score on the financial system.
The financial system has lengthy been voters’ prime concern, and 2024 was no exception. Heading into the election, most voters advised Gallup they trusted Trump greater than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on the financial system, little question believing he’d decrease inflation and grocery costs as he repeatedly promised.
After all, we’ve seen how that’s turned out.
Since returning to energy, Trump has unleashed a storm of erratic financial strikes: slapping tariffs on key allies, spooking buyers with social media tirades, and attempting to bully Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into slashing rates of interest. The consequence? Confidence in his financial management has cratered, in response to this new knowledge.
And few count on a rebound. CNBC finds that 49% of People—together with 83% of Democrats and 54% of independents—assume the financial system will worsen over the following yr, the bleakest studying since 2023, which additionally tracks with broader recession warnings.
Even Republicans could also be shedding religion in his financial stewardship. CNBC’s ballot finds that many extra GOP voters approve of Trump’s general job efficiency than of his tariffs.
He promised a growth. He’s delivering a bust. Surprise how that’ll play out for him in subsequent yr’s midterm elections.
People frightened about free press
On a regular basis People are frightened about potential restrictions on the free press—however their degree of fear largely is dependent upon which aspect of the aisle they sit on.
Based on new Pew Analysis Heart knowledge, 69% of adults are involved about doable restrictions on press freedom, a proper enshrined within the First Modification. That features 43% who’re “extremely” or “very” involved.
Whereas the numbers are nearly an identical to what Pew present in 2024, the partisan break up on concern has shifted. In 2024, extra Republicans (47%) than Democrats (38%) had been extraordinarily or very involved about doable restrictions on press freedom. However below Trump, that has mainly flipped: 60% of Democrats are actually extraordinarily or very involved, in contrast with simply 28% of Republicans.
Although former President Joe Biden wasn’t excellent on press freedom, it’s nothing in contrast with the best way Trump has gone after the media, particularly in his second time period. Trump’s not simply bashing reporters—he’s weaponizing the federal authorities towards them. He’s suing CBS Information for $10 billion and has pushed the Federal Communications Fee to examine that community and others. He demanded that Congress strip practically all federal funding from public broadcasters NPR and PBS. And he’s tried to regulate which shops get entry to the White Home.
He’s even aimed his rage at polling organizations, demanding they shut down if their numbers don’t flatter him. However what does he count on? He’s tanking the financial system whereas his incompetent Cupboard fumbles behind the scenes. After all, People aren’t thrilled with how issues are going.
Unsurprisingly, the folks most frightened about press freedom are those paying consideration. Pew discovered that 49% of People carefully following Trump’s presidency are “extremely” or “very” involved about restrictions, in contrast with simply 29% of these much less tuned in.
There’s a silver lining, although. Regardless of—or possibly due to—Trump’s assaults, assist for press freedom is rising. Pew discovered that 77% of People now say a free press is “extremely” or “very” vital to society’s well-being, up 4 factors from 2024.
Trump might desire a media that exists solely to serve him. However thus far, the nation isn’t shopping for into that fantasy.
Any updates?
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The Home GOP desires to chop a whole bunch of billions of {dollars} from Medicaid and meals stamps to fund tax cuts for the wealthy. It’s a giveaway the ultrawealthy might love, however voters, not a lot. A survey mannequin from Knowledge for Progress finds that assist for slashing Medicaid is beneath 15% in all 435 congressional districts.
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Trump’s on-line retailer could also be hawking “Trump 2028” hats, however there’s an excellent probability these issues wither in an abroad warehouse as a result of People actually, actually don’t need him to (unconstitutionally) search a 3rd time period. Three-quarters of People, together with 53% of Republicans, oppose him attempting to run once more, in response to a brand new Ipsos survey for Reuters.
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Most Republican girls (64%) say managing their bodily well being is a prime precedence, however they’re additionally extra probably than the common American to supply well being info from Fb and Pinterest, in response to a brand new Morning Seek the advice of ballot. That second half could also be why the pollster finds that GOP girls are extra probably than Democratic girls to imagine doubtful well being concepts, like falsely believing early childhood vaccines trigger autism: 8% of Democratic girls imagine that misinformation, however 22% of Republican girls do.
Vibe examine
Impartial voters are souring on Trump, particularly over his tariff insurance policies, however that doesn’t imply they’re warming to the Democratic Celebration. Simply 15% of impartial registered voters view the Democratic Celebration favorably, whereas a staggering 71% view it unfavorably, in response to Civiqs as of Friday.
Much more troubling, these numbers have worsened since Election Day. Regardless of Trump mainly bulldozing elements of the federal authorities, independents don’t appear to be satisfied Democrats are the higher possibility. That could possibly be on account of many elements: uninspiring management, inconsistent messaging, and a lack of urgency from some Democrats in confronting Trump.
It’s additionally probably that for a lot of independents, the candidate issues greater than the get together. With the appropriate messengers—and extra spine—Democrats have a shot at profitable over independents.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
