Two days stay till Election Day, and Republicans are aiming to take management of the Senate and broaden their majority.
Democrats maintain a 51-49 benefit, which Republicans have already sliced into with their pending victory in West Virginia, the place GOP Gov. Jim Justice is the heavy favourite to win the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).
That leaves Republicans needing just one extra seat to win again the higher chamber, with Montana and Ohio being the prime targets.
In response to Choice Desk HQ (DDHQ), the GOP has a 70 p.c likelihood of wrestling again the Senate.
A lot of battleground races have tightened to useless heats, and the efficiency of former President Trump and Vice President Harris might additionally play a job within the outcomes.
For the ultimate time of the 2024 cycle, listed here are the highest 5 seats prone to flip, not together with the West Virginia seat.
Montana
A win in Montana means the bulk for the GOP, and the get together has felt more and more bullish that Republican Tim Sheehy is in place to topple Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
Montana is broadly thought of Republicans’ greatest likelihood at flipping a seat, exterior of West Virginia.
In response to a latest survey by The Hill/Emerson School, Sheehy leads by 4 share factors (50 p.c to 46 p.c) over the three-term incumbent. And the Cook dinner Political Report has the seat in its “lean Republican” column.
Maybe extra indicative of the place the race stands is how both sides has maneuvered their last spends. A high GOP exterior group not too long ago shifted almost $3 million from Montana to Nevada, the place Republicans have seen some last-minute tightening, displaying confidence that Sheehy is able to seal the deal.
“I’m feeling certain about Montana right now,” one Senate Republican advised The Hill, noting that latest inner polls on the GOP aspect have proven Sheehy holding a lead over Tester that’s exterior the margin of error.
Democrats, nonetheless, don’t assume this race is over regardless of the general public polls. They’re fast to notice that Montana is notoriously tough to ballot and say that Tester’s 2012 victory, his final run in a presidential yr, reveals he can win regardless of polls displaying him down.
Ohio
The race between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Republican Bernie Moreno has drawn to even with Tuesday quick approaching.
A win in Ohio would broaden Republicans’ majority and the race has turn into the costliest contest on the Senate map this yr.
Brown held a gradual lead that lasted by Labor Day, buoyed by a large benefit on the airwaves, however the wind seems to be at Moreno’s again now. An common of polls from DDHQ and The Hill reveals Moreno up by simply lower than 1 share level.
Republican operatives have argued that the competition is mirroring the pattern line of Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) race two years in the past. Vance trailed then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) all through the summer time and into October earlier than overtaking and in the end defeating him by 6 factors.
They’re additionally relying on a lift from Trump. The operatives say an 8-point victory on the presidential degree must be sufficient to tug Moreno throughout the end line.
Brown himself has reportedly advised donors that an 8-point margin is one which he seemingly can not overcome.
“Sherrod’s an A [candidate] and Bernie’s a C-,” one GOP operative concerned in Senate races stated. “But we should win it based on gravity.”
The Ohio contest is about to turn into not solely the costliest Senate race this cycle, however of all time. The Georgia Senate race in 2020 between Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and former Sen. David Perdue (R) attracted $412 million, with this contest set to eclipse the $500 million mark.
Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is making an attempt to hold on for pricey life as Republican Eric Hovde has introduced the must-win race for Democrats to a digital useless warmth.
Republicans are eyeing Wisconsin as one among their greatest pickup alternatives exterior of Montana and Ohio.
Baldwin, a two-term incumbent, ran forward of Hovde all through a lot of the cycle, however that lead has largely disappeared as GOP-leaning males have come dwelling to the Republican Social gathering. The Cook dinner Political Report charges the competition a “toss-up.”
Nonetheless, whether or not Hovde can recover from the ultimate hump stays a serious query. In response to the ultimate Marquette College Legislation ballot, Baldwin holds a 2-point lead over the GOP nominee. Maybe simply as essential, she is outrunning Harris by a slight margin.
Democrats nonetheless see work to do within the dwelling stretch, and that facilities on turning out Democratic-heavy Milwaukee.
“I think you’ll see a real focus on the city of Milwaukee from Democrats up and down the ballot in the final hours,” one Wisconsin-based Democratic operative stated, pointing to Harris’s rally with Baldwin within the metropolis on Friday and different smaller occasions.
Republicans, in the meantime, see Baldwin as a generic Democrat who can have hassle separating herself from the highest of the ticket regardless of what the Marquette ballot says.
The race, very like a number of of the “blue wall” states, additionally is dependent upon the margin on the high of the ticket, with Hovde seemingly needing Trump to win with a large enough margin to hold him throughout the road.
Pennsylvania
Defeating Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has been atop the want checklist of Pennsylvania Republicans ever since he knocked off Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) almost 20 years in the past, and so they simply have their greatest likelihood this week.
Casey has held a constant margin over Republican David McCormick into September, however has seen his lead sliced and diced to the place it’s now — virtually deadlocked.
Whereas Republicans routinely observe that toppling Casey is not at all straightforward, they laud McCormick and his workforce for the way they’ve been capable of tie the Democrat to Harris.
The perceived incapability to create separation is giving Democrats anxiousness as they close to the top.
“I always thought Casey would do like 3 points better than the top of the ticket. But polling isn’t showing that. His numbers are the same as Kamala’s,” one senior Pennsylvania Democrat stated. “I’m surprised.”
“Even [Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.)], who isn’t an incumbent, is running better than Bob and has some separation with Harris,” the Democrat continued, saying if Trump wins Pennsylvania “by 1 then the Senate race could definitely go Republican too.”
In response to Choice Desk HQ, Casey leads by greater than 2 share factors and has a 72 p.c likelihood at nabbing a fourth time period.
Republicans are additionally placing extra muscle behind their message within the last stretch as they spent $16.2 million final week in comparison with $11.9 million by Democrats within the second most costly Senate race on the map this cycle.
Michigan
For a time this fall, Republicans had believed that Michigan represented the get together’s greatest likelihood at successful a non-Montana or non-Ohio race.
Not like races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, the competition between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Slotkin doesn’t characteristic an incumbent after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) determined in opposition to looking for a fifth time period, theoretically giving the GOP a bonus not seen elsewhere.
Nonetheless, Slotkin and Michigan have proved a troublesome nut to crack.
Operatives on either side of the aisle have acknowledged in latest days that whereas the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are all up for grabs, Michigan might be the least seemingly of the three to flip as the opposite states have narrowed extra within the last weeks.
“Democrats in Michigan can win just if they hit their numbers,” one GOP operative concerned in Senate races stated. “We can be perfect in Michigan, but if they hit their numbers, we lose.”
Slotkin holds a 3.2-percentage level lead over Rogers, with Harris performing higher there than in both of the 2 different states, based on Choice Desk HQ.
And no Republican has gained a Senate race within the Wolverine State in 30 years.
