Democrats made important inroads in state legislative races in current election cycles and hoped to construct on these features on Tuesday. However with many state legislative races nonetheless too near name — and more likely to set off recounts — Republicans seem to have largely staved off huge challenges in key states and flipped Democratic seats in others.
Most notably, they partially reversed huge Democratic 2022 features in Michigan and Minnesota that gave that occasion complete management of these state governments and ushered by means of daring progressive agendas. The GOP flipped not less than one legislative chamber in Michigan and appeared to have battled Democrats to a draw within the Minnesota Home, with management of the chamber nonetheless up within the air.
And Democratic goals of huge features in Wisconsin — beneath redrawn maps that gave them their finest shot in additional than a decade — largely didn’t materialize.
About 80 % of the nation’s 7,386 state legislative seats and 11 governorships had been on the poll Tuesday. Republicans have dominated state capitals for greater than a decade, since eviscerating Democrats within the 2010 cycle. And if the early returns are any indication, they’ll accomplish that for the foreseeable future.
“Democrats hyped up the cycle as their best shot since 2010 when they got blown out in the states to gain some real power, and they largely fell short,” mentioned POLITICO’s Liz Crampton, who reported on most of the most intently watched state-level contests in current months.
We assembled a group of POLITICO reporters and editors — Crampton, Madison Fernandez, Zach Montellaro and Lisa Kashinsky — who’ve been monitoring state races all through the 2024 cycle to interrupt down essentially the most compelling and stunning outcomes from Tuesday.
Two of the battleground state legislatures had been in a holding sample as of Wednesday afternoon. Arizona seemed to be Democrats’ finest shot at incomes a whole flip — however it’s going to come right down to a handful of races that may seemingly take days for outcomes to be finalized. In Pennsylvania, Republicans seem to have maintained management within the Senate, whereas Democrats are hoping to cling to a one-seat majority within the Home.
Eight of the 11 governorships on the poll this yr had been open seats, elevating the prospect of pitched battles. However ultimately, not a single state govt submit flipped events. Even essentially the most aggressive race within the nation — New Hampshire — ended up being a runaway victory for Republican Kelly Ayotte.
This dialog has been edited for size and readability.
Liz, you wrote a couple of bunch of state legislative contests this cycle. What’s your huge takeaway from what we noticed on Tuesday?
Liz Crampton: Backside line — it was an awesome night time for Republicans and a mediocre night time for Democrats. Democrats overestimated the cycle as their finest shot since 2010, after they received blown out within the states, to achieve some actual energy — and so they largely fell quick.
Madison, Zach, what would you add to that?
Madison Fernandez: I’m to see and listen to from people what the reasoning for that’s. Within the lead as much as the election, Dems had been stressing that poll roll-off is an enormous factor for them, the place voters don’t vote all the best way down poll in these races. So it may very well be that. But additionally, whenever you take a look at the nationwide Democratic enthusiasm on Tuesday, it wasn’t nice actually anyplace up or down the poll. So I believe there’s a number of components at play right here.
Zach Montellaro: It was additionally a reasonably mixed-to-bad bag for typically liberal-coded poll measures. Some abortion proper measures received — extra received than misplaced — however they misplaced in Florida, most notably, the most important state to reject an abortion rights poll measure.
Voting reform — most events don’t embrace it, however typically liberals are happier to vote for ranked selection voting than Republicans. Ranked-choice voting fairly uniformly misplaced throughout the nation.
Banning non-citizen voting — which to be clear is already unlawful in federal elections — handed by huge margins principally throughout the nation.
Poll measures on the entire had been higher for liberals than the outcomes had been for Democrats, however they nonetheless suffered some fairly huge defeats.
What had been the most important surprises or essentially the most intriguing outcomes?
What do you attribute that disconnect between how Harris fared in North Carolina and the way the remainder of the Democratic ticket fared?
We’re lower than 24 hours after polls closed. Quite a lot of races are nonetheless too near name, and lots of will in the end set off recounts. What are we nonetheless searching for by way of outcomes proper now?
LC: Arizona is Democrats’ finest shot at altering the narrative round this election. There’s nonetheless a risk that they flip both chamber, and it’s going to come back right down to a handful of races with very tight margins that we most likely received’t know the outcomes of for a number of days.
Keep watch over the Tucson suburbs. The Democratic candidates in each the state Home and Senate there are main — not by a cushty margin, however they’re forward — and that’s a great signal for the occasion statewide.
Do you see any separation between the nationwide contests and state-level races by way of the problem set that basically drove the end result of those races?
Let’s get Lisa into the combination. The New Hampshire governor’s race was essentially the most intently watched, tightly contested within the nation. Finally, Kelly Ayotte received by about 9 factors. Why did she draw back?
Lisa Kashinsky: There have been a number of components. Initially, Kelly Ayotte has been a family identify in New Hampshire for about twenty years now, first because the state’s lawyer normal, then as a senator. She solely narrowly misplaced reelection to the Senate in 2016. And he or she had the backing of the state’s actually extremely widespread governor, [Chris Sununu], although apparently not as widespread as Phil Scott.
[Sununu] campaigned extensively for her. He was in adverts. He was on the path. He’s actually well-liked in New Hampshire, which regardless of being blue federally remains to be very purple, and clearly after these elections pink on the state stage. And Ayotte actually ran as an extension of his administration and his insurance policies.
Democrats actually used their nationwide abortion-rights playbook on this race. And it wasn’t sufficient to fight all of those benefits that Ayotte had. She was in a position to parry all of their assaults on her previous stances … by saying — successfully, it appears — that she would uphold New Hampshire’s present regulation, permitting pregnancies to 24 weeks with some exceptions afterwards. After a yr of operating adverts about that to fight Democrats’ assaults, it seems like individuals believed it.
And New Hampshire, like all over the place else, is anxious in regards to the economic system. That was the highest challenge in polls for voters. Once you’re operating as an extension of Sununu — Stay Free or Die, no taxes, don’t Mass. up New Hampshire with the excessive taxes and all that stuff — that’s a very salient message to voters there.
There have been a pair different governor’s races that had been on the radar display screen. Former Congressman Dave Reichert, operating in Washington, had Republicans very excited. Democrats had been hopeful that they could spring an upset in Indiana with a former state superintendent of training and former Republican. However each these races ended up being blowouts. Any ideas on why these actually didn’t find yourself being aggressive races?
ZM: In the event you informed me at first of the cycle that there’d be zero flips, I’d be like, “Yeah, that makes sense.” How we received there actually was stunning — just like the margin of Kelly Ayotte’s victory, Mark Robinson’s implosion in North Carolina.
However on the finish of the day, Washington will not be a bluish state, and Indiana will not be a reddish state. Washington is a blue state, and Indiana is a pink state. And other people got here dwelling.
You possibly can solely defy gravity for thus lengthy in politics. And Dave Reichert might be the most effective instance of that, too. He bowed out from Congress through the Trump period as a result of he didn’t suppose he’d survive, after which in the end couldn’t actually escape the Trump orbit. He was type of doomed from the beginning.
What different subplots are you guys watching? What else struck you popping out of those state leg and gubernatorial contests?
MF: On abortion, I’m wondering how Democrats are going to method it, in the event that they’re going to maintain counting on it so closely, in the event that they’re going to tweak their message in any respect. You’ve seen that abortion is de facto profitable, usually in statewide races. Have a look at Andy Beshear in Kentucky in ’23. That’s what helped him get to reelection. It clearly didn’t work in New Hampshire.
I can think about Dems saying, “Oh, that’s just a one-off.” However I believe it truly is form of a blemish on the file, for lack of a greater time period. It’s additionally attention-grabbing whenever you take a look at a number of the abortion rights poll initiatives that went down. These had been the primary losses since Roe was overturned for these initiatives.
Once you take a look at challenge polls, abortion’s nonetheless up there. Nevertheless it’s undoubtedly not primary. It’s the economic system. It’s democracy. So I’m to see how the occasion goes to be approaching abortion messaging within the coming yr.
LK: It appears like they could want to truly have a reckoning with it, not simply within the states. They misplaced a federal election the place their candidate, Kamala Harris, was operating on defending girls’s rights towards Donald Trump, famous misogynist, and one who helped fell Roe v. Wade. I’m curious to see if that truly sinks in, like down the poll, in these state-level races, and if Democrats select to confront or grapple with this actually at any stage.
ZM: Early check for that? Give Abigail Spanberger a name. There’s no off years in politics, people. And we’ve two governor’s races subsequent yr, two aggressive ones possibly, in Virginia and New Jersey.
Abigail Spanberger most likely doesn’t really feel nice proper now, as a result of Democrats simply misplaced the White Home. But when she’s solely fascinated by her probabilities of being the following governor of Virginia, she most likely feels somewhat bit higher, as a result of Virginia — blue-ish-leaning state — it’s all the time the most important referendum. Glenn Youngkin very famously received in 2021, type of beating again Biden’s advance.
In the event you ask me proper now who the following governor of Virginia goes to be, I wager most of the time it’s going to be a Democrat. How does Abigail Spanberger speak about abortion goes to be an enormous trace to if this has any form of endurance in 2025, 2026, or if Democrats want to determine one thing else to speak about?
How do you see the outcomes that we noticed in state races match into form of the nationwide narrative that’s developed during the last 24 hours with Trump profitable by a a lot greater margin than most folk anticipated, Republicans flipping the Senate and nonetheless up within the air about whether or not they in the end find yourself accountable for the Home?
LC: State-level Democrats are going to need to confront the identical query that the Harris marketing campaign is: Does floor recreation actually matter? As a result of this was their strongest floor recreation in lots of states throughout the nation, and so they nonetheless misplaced. So conventional politicking appears to be no extra.
MF: Each Dems and Republicans, the [state legislative] nationwide committees had been telling me within the lead as much as the election that they’re nonetheless not getting sufficient consideration, nonetheless not getting sufficient sources. A part of that’s as a result of we had been in a very excessive stakes, excessive greenback presidential yr. However I’m to see how the eye on state legislatures goes to progress within the coming years, particularly within the off years when that’s one of many greater races on the poll.
It’s evident that Dems nonetheless have some work to do, regardless that there’s some extra nationwide funding than there was traditionally. After final night time, positive, they’re celebrating some features. However I don’t suppose it’s the place they need it to be.
