You’re going to see the identical pie chart additional on down in Paul Krugman’s piece. I positioned this pie chart at first right here in order to provide readers an thought simply how huge the outlays are for the USAID. Compared, Musk’s mighty achievement is .006% of the entire.
However there may be extra to this story apart from the USAID $40 Billion. The USAID was created by the 1961 Overseas Help Act – Wikipedia. I’m noticing issues are disappearing off of Google. The hyperlinks usually are not working for some sources of knowledge. This is likely one of the freebies off of Krugman’s web site (haven’t but joined it). I discover his commentaries to be attention-grabbing. Onward to Krugman . . .
What the Musk is Occurring?
When writing posts for this text, I prefer to have a transparent focus and provide a tightly argued thesis, backed by knowledge. This, nevertheless, gained’t be that type of submit. If I needed to summarize the state of affairs proper now, I might quote Charlie Brown: “Aaugh!”
Right here’s the place we’re as a nation proper now:
1. We could also be in the midst of a commerce struggle. Or perhaps not
2. We’re in the midst of a constitutional disaster. No perhaps.
3. We could also be within the midst of a kind of digital coup, which could as a facet consequence trigger giant elements of the federal authorities to stop functioning in any respect.
The unifying theme right here, I assume, is that the federal authorities has been taken over by unhealthy individuals who are also additionally stunningly ignorant.
Begin with the perhaps/perhaps not commerce struggle. The Trump administration was, to all appearances, able to impose 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico final evening. This could have been self-destructive (and likewise a violation of previous agreements) even when our neighbors didn’t retaliate. And each made it clear that they would retaliate. These are actual international locations, with actual patriotism and delight, they usually weren’t able to be bullied.
And Trump folded. OK, supposedly the tariffs are solely on maintain for a month, however some wags are already joking that “tariff month” will turn into the brand new “infrastructure week.”
And supposedly each Mexico and Canada made some concessions in return for the tariff maintain. However there’s actually nothing there; neither nation is doing something it wouldn’t have achieved with out the tariff menace. The U.S., alternatively, agreed to crack down on weapons shipments to Mexico. Trump will spin this as a victory; low-information voters and a few intimidated media shops might go together with the lie. However mainly America backed down.
So is Trump the traditional bully who runs away when somebody stands as much as him? It positively seems to be that manner.
Let’s be clear, nevertheless: this isn’t a case of no hurt, no foul. By making the tariff menace within the first place, Trump made it clear that America is not a nation that honors its agreements. By caving on the first signal of opposition, he additionally made himself look weak. China have to be very happy at how all this has performed out.
And as I argued the opposite day, the now ever-present menace of tariffs can have a chilling impact on enterprise planning, inhibiting financial integration and damaging manufacturing.
Nonetheless, the commerce struggle didn’t occur, not less than up to now. However the constitutional disaster is in full swing.
Yesterday, Elon Musk, after spending the weekend denouncing the U.S. Company for Worldwide Improvement as “evil,” a “viper’s nest of radical-left Marxists who hate America,” and a “criminal organization,” introduced that the company was being shut down. Now, Musk isn’t the president — not less than I don’t assume he’s; he isn’t even a authorities official.
However Donald Trump has confirmed the transfer, which is prohibited and unconstitutional. No qualifying language, no “might be” or “some say” evasions, please. Congress handed a legislation establishing USAID as an impartial company, and the president can’t abolish it until Congress passes new laws to that impact.
It appears virtually irrelevant to ask what that is about, however nonetheless: What’s this about? If that is purported to be about saving cash, right here’s the function of USAID within the federal finances:
So why is Musk such a hysterical enemy of the company, whose essential function is offering humanitarian support? There could also be some backstory right here, during which USAID by some means as soon as interfered with a Musk challenge. And Musk is definitely banking on public innumeracy: abolishing an company sounds as if it’s going to save some huge cash, and few voters perceive how small $40 billion is within the federal context.
However my guess is that in Musk’s world view the mere reality of attempting to assist individuals in want makes you a radical-left Marxist who hates America.
My last level is a bit trickier, as a result of we don’t but know the way it will end up. Musk associates have been given entry to the U.S. Treasury’s techniques that management all federal funds, from grants to nonprofits to Social Safety checks to salaries of federal employees.
The potential for mischief right here is immense. The courts might have informed the Trump administration that it will possibly’t freeze spending mandated by Congress, however Musk’s individuals, who haven’t proven a lot reverence for the legislation, would possibly properly simply ignore the courts and never reduce the checks.
They usually may transcend slicing off packages the Musk/Trump administration doesn’t like. Think about that you simply’re a federal contractor who has made marketing campaign donations to Democrats; out of the blue the federal government stops paying what it owes you and brushes off inquiries by saying that they’re engaged on the issue. Otherwise you’re a federal worker who, in keeping with any person in your workplace who has a private grievance, has expressed sympathy for DEI; by some means your commonly scheduled wage funds cease being deposited into your checking account. And even think about that you simply’re a retiree who canvassed for Kamala Harris, and for some cause your checks from Social Safety cease coming.
Don’t say they wouldn’t do such issues. We’ve seen these individuals in motion, and naturally they’d if they might.
For the second they in all probability can’t. The federal funds system is immensely complicated, and like most authorities infrastructure has been financially squeezed for many years. So it’s cobbled collectively, a lot of it operating on outdated {hardware} and even older software program, stored functioning because of outdated palms and institutional reminiscence. The 20-somethings Musk is deploying to take over, locking out these outdated palms and pushing apart the individuals who know the way the system works, virtually certainly don’t perceive sufficient to politicize funds instantly.
As Nathan Tankus, the go-to professional on these issues, says,
“I 100% believe that the primary barrier to Elon Musk gaining control of the Treasury payments system is COBOL.”
For readers mystified by the reference, COBOL is a really outdated programming language that was as soon as pervasive within the enterprise world however during which hardly anybody below 60 is aware of easy methods to program — but continues to be broadly utilized in authorities. (Throughout Covid, the state of New Jersey put out a frantic name for individuals who knew COBOL to implement expanded unemployment advantages.)
However this remark raises one other concern. What if the Musk individuals — Muskovites? — attempt to muck with techniques they don’t perceive, believing that they’re tremendous sensible and may grasp every little thing with the assistance of a bit of AI? It’s not laborious to think about the entire federal funds system — together with, by the best way, servicing of federal debt — crashing.
A lot injury — to U.S. credibility, to the Structure and the rule of legislation, and probably even to the very functioning of the federal government. And Trump solely took energy 2 weeks in the past.
