The 2024 WNBA season has been one for the books, and it’ll finish Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a winner-take-all at Barclays Heart between the No. 1 seed New York Liberty and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx.
House groups are 5-2 all time in Sport 5 of the WNBA Finals.
The Liberty may have clinched their first championship in franchise historical past Friday, however the Lynx held court docket. New York, the league’s solely remaining authentic franchise with out a title, has misplaced all 5 earlier instances it has performed for the championship.
Minnesota can win a WNBA report fifth title with a win Sunday. Cheryl Reeve sports activities a 2-1 report in Finals Sport 5s as head coach.
What ought to we count on in Sport 5? ESPN breaks down the X elements and predicts which workforce will probably be topped champion.
Is that this the very best WNBA Finals in league historical past?
Michael Voepel: There may be often recency bias with questions like this as a result of what we’ve seen for the previous week is so recent.
That mentioned, there’s a case to be made for this sequence. It’s gone the gap, and three of the 4 video games have been determined by three factors or fewer. And the opposite one — New York’s 80-66 victory in Sport 2 — was a two-point recreation with lower than 4 minutes left. There’s usually a minimum of one dud recreation even in a very good championship sequence, however that hasn’t occurred.
We’ve got seen a little bit of every little thing:
Sport 1, Lynx win: An 18-point comeback, a four-point play to take the lead within the final 5 seconds by Courtney Williams, and extra time. Sport 3, Liberty win: Sabrina Ionescu‘s 28-foot 3-pointer with one second left. Sport 4, Lynx win: Bridget Carleton‘s two game-winning free throws with two seconds left. This recreation additionally was the tightest all through, with 14 lead adjustments and 13 ties.
Sunday will mark Reeve’s sixth Finals Sport 5 (together with her time with the Detroit Shock as an assistant coach), so she is effectively positioned to make comparisons. She mentioned the Minnesota-Los Angeles Sparks Finals in 2016 and 2017, which each went 5 video games, stand out as a result of a number of future Corridor of Famers have been enjoying for each groups.
Two video games within the 2016 Finals ended on last-second pictures, each received by the Sparks. The primary two video games of the 2017 Finals have been determined by one and two factors, the subsequent three by 11, 11 and 9 factors.
The 2024 WNBA Finals have been ____.
Charlie Creme: Coronary heart-stopping. All 4 video games have been shut late. For sheer viewing pleasure, few sequence in basketball historical past have been higher.
Alexa Philippou: Gratifying. In a season that welcomed loads of new followers and viewers because of the sensational rookie class, it’s a deal with that these two groups — historic and particular in their very own methods — are placing on such a high-level sequence. It’s the newest reminder of how good the gamers and the teaching and the basketball have been within the WNBA, lengthy earlier than its sudden rise in cultural relevance.
Voepel: Excruciating for Liberty followers. Some New York trustworthy go all the best way again to 1997. They’ve stayed the course by many postseason disappointments. It felt like this was “their year,” particularly as soon as they defeated the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces within the semifinals. However the Lynx are making the Liberty work as laborious as potential. Some New York followers will watch Sport 5 prefer it’s a horror film that would go terribly unsuitable. Such is the value of longtime fandom.
Who or what would be the X consider Sport 5?
Philippou: The well being and effectiveness of Alanna Smith, who’s pushing by a again problem that (together with foul bother) stored her sidelined a superb little bit of Sport 3. She completed with 12 factors and seven boards in half-hour in Sport 4, a superb signal for the Lynx, who additionally acquired strong minutes from Dorka Juhasz. Now coming off of a flight and fast turnaround following Friday’s recreation, whether or not Smith can proceed to battle towards Jonquel Jones will probably be an enormous issue for Minnesota.
And as apparent because it sounds, this recreation may come all the way down to which workforce makes fewer errors down the stretch and which steps up within the clutch. Late fouls, free throw effectivity and big-time 3-pointers have swung the result of three of the 4 Finals video games. If Sunday comes all the way down to the ultimate minute or seconds, late-game execution will resolve which workforce is topped champion.
Creme: Officiating. I don’t assume Friday’s recreation was officiated unfairly as Sandy Brondello mentioned in Friday’s postgame information convention, however now each coaches have engaged in posturing in regards to the officers. How Sport 5 is known as will probably be one thing to watch. After Sport 3, Minnesota’s Reeve lamented that Napheesa Collier obtained extra scrutiny from the officers than Breanna Stewart. In Sport 4, Stewart was the celebrity in foul bother. Did Reeve’s phrases have some affect? We’ll by no means know, however now that Brondello has publicly aired her displeasure with the whistles after a recreation wherein her workforce tried 11 fewer free throws, will probably be fascinating to see what the foul and free throw numbers appear to be Sunday.
Voepel: It appears like there may be extra stress on the Liberty, for apparent causes as they search their first championship. How effectively they defend from the tip can set the tone on this recreation. How effectively Breanna Stewart performs offensively is the opposite huge. As we noticed in Sport 3, she will be able to completely take over. However as we noticed in Sport 4, she will be able to additionally battle along with her taking pictures accuracy.
Can the Liberty win the title if Stewart and Ionescu shoot like they did Friday?
Voepel: In Sport 4, you could possibly inform Stewart and Napheesa Collier have been feeling the grind of battling one another for a week-plus. Collier was 4-of-10 from the sector and Stewart 5-of-21. However with every little thing on the road Sunday, it’s doubtless we’ll see robust performances from each. Getting a superb taking pictures recreation from Ionescu, then, could possibly be an absolute key for New York.
Philippou: The Liberty have been inside attain of profitable a championship with these two taking pictures poorly Friday, because of the contributions of Jones, Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. So perhaps it’s not inconceivable to win in such circumstances — particularly if Jones goes off — nevertheless it makes the margin for error a lot slimmer.
Nonetheless, it’s not a coincidence that in New York’s two Finals losses, Ionecsu shot 30.8% and 33.3% (vs. 55.6% and 41.7% of their wins) and Stewart shot sub-30% (vs. 38.9% and 45%).
Stewart and Ionescu are New York’s leaders and must make pictures down the stretch in crucial recreation of their Liberty careers. However the Liberty additionally want to scrub up a few of their offensive course of; New York’s motion and decision-making on offense in stretches of this sequence are extra the wrongdoer than lacking pictures.
Creme: No. That may appear to be too absolute of a response given New York virtually did win Sport 4 with its two greatest stars combining to shoot 10-for-36. Stewart and Ionescu additionally shot poorly in Sport 1, an extra time loss for the Liberty. And that’s simply it: In New York’s wins on this sequence, Stewart has scored 21 and 30 factors. Ionescu made 10 of 21 pictures mixed in Video games 2 and three and had the game-winning 3-pointer in Sport 3. Positive, Jones and Fiebich have been excellent in Sport 4, however we now have seen that that isn’t sufficient. New York wants its stars, a minimum of one in every of them, to be simply that to win the primary title in franchise historical past.
The Lynx already received one recreation this sequence at Barclays. How do they pull off one other?
Philippou: They’ll must placed on one other defensive masterclass. Within the two video games Minnesota misplaced this sequence, New York shot over 45% from the ground and 40% from 3. And as we beforehand mentioned, slowing down Ionescu and Stewart would go a great distance. If Stewart and Collier neutralize one another, can some mixture of Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton hit huge pictures down the stretch?
Voepel: If the Lynx have the lead late, they may have the ability to drive the Liberty into splintering like they did in Sport 1. It simply felt just like the New York gamers didn’t actually pull collectively in that loss, as they have been all attempting to proper the ship solo after their 15-point lead slipped away within the final 5 minutes of regulation.
Which workforce will win Sunday?
Creme: New York. But it surely’ll be one other tight one. Stewart will bounce again and can make an enormous play late. The Liberty earned home-court benefit by being the very best workforce within the league all season. That is what it’s for, and the Barclays Heart crowd that may virtually assuredly be greater than 18,000 will present simply sufficient of a lift for New York.
Philippou: New York. This sequence has been stuffed with surprises, however I’m going to stay with my authentic prediction. Courtney Williams stored saying earlier than Sport 3 the Lynx didn’t wish to return to Brooklyn due to how energizing the gang is for the Liberty. And after the Aces celebrated a championship on the Barclays Heart flooring final 12 months, the Liberty aren’t going to let a visiting workforce do this once more.
Voepel: Minnesota. Reeve had the absolute best reply Friday to what would resolve Sport 5: “It’s two great teams. Who knows?” That’s why this sequence has been so good. Even with the Liberty having the very best regular-season report and being the No. 1 seed, the Lynx had the higher of New York within the common season and within the Commissioner’s Cup remaining. It actually has been evenly matched.
As Charlie and Alexa talked about, the gang at Barclays could possibly be a sixth participant on this recreation; the vitality degree will probably be wonderful. However having picked the Lynx at first of the sequence, I’ll stick with that.
