Tesla is on the cusp of a brand new period in its historical past, in keeping with bullish tech investor Dan Ives.
As Tesla prepares to launch the early phases of its robotaxi providing in Austin this weekend, the carmaker will make good on its long-held ambitions to enter the ride-hailing enterprise.
Ives, whose Wedbush Securities is commonly bullish on the tech sector, welcomed the robotaxi launch. “We view this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla in its history as a company,” he wrote in an analyst word launched Friday.
The concept Tesla’s self-driving know-how would allow it to have a fleet of robotaxis is central to the funding thesis for the corporate. Its chief government, Elon Musk, has lengthy outlined his imaginative and prescient of hundreds of thousands of self-driving Teslas shuttling round paying clients as the subsequent section of the corporate’s future. Musk has mentioned the corporate’s purpose is to permit Tesla homeowners to make their vehicles a part of its robotaxi fleet once they aren’t utilizing their vehicles.
“So, kind of like Airbnb, where you can sort of add or subtract your house or your guest room,” Musk mentioned in January.
The most effective-case situation of the robotaxi rollout might basically double Tesla’s market cap by the tip of 2026, Ives mentioned. He predicted that Tesla’s market cap would attain $2 trillion by way of subsequent yr. Tesla’s inventory has had a poor yr in 2025 to this point, declining 15.9% yr thus far. The corporate additionally reported disappointing gross sales outcomes earlier this yr. Tesla shareholders discovered themselves having to cope with forces far exterior their management, resembling a souring relationship between the U.S. and China, its two greatest markets, and Musk’s involvement in politics and the Trump administration, which attracted vital scrutiny.
Tesla didn’t reply to a request for remark.
After the check in Austin, which can begin in a geofenced location with about 25 vehicles, future expansions will likely be made simpler by a positive regulatory setting.
“We fully expect under a Trump White House these key initiatives will now get fast-tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around autonomous clears significantly,” Ives mentioned.
The joy of Tesla’s most bullish buyers, nonetheless, postpone some others. Earlier this month, funding agency Baird downgraded Tesla’s inventory from “buy” to “neutral” as a result of it noticed the speed at which the robotaxi program would increase as “a bit too optimistic.” Baird additionally highlighted the general public tiff between Musk and Trump as elevating uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s future. Argus Analysis cited the falling-out as the primary cause for its personal downgrade, which additionally got here this month. Analysts at Argus feared Tesla’s inventory was buying and selling on “non-fundamental events,” which means buyers have been shopping for and promoting the inventory for causes that weren’t associated to its financials.
“Looking ahead, we are concerned that the war of words between President Trump and Elon Musk, along with the expiration of EV credits, could further weaken demand for new Teslas,” wrote Argus analyst Invoice Selesky.
Ives, nonetheless, noticed previous the spat. “The BFF/frenemy situation with Musk and Trump has created a soap opera on this front, but ultimately Trump wants the U.S. to stay ahead of China in this AI arms race, and autonomous is a key factor in who wins AI with Tesla playing a major role on robotaxis,” he mentioned. “We expect over the coming months an easing of the federal framework for autonomous with more power going to the federal regulators, with states having less authority on the autonomous rules.”
Tesla’s robotaxi wouldn’t be the primary autonomous automobile permitted to be used within the U.S. Alphabet-owned Waymo is at present obtainable in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. This week, Waymo introduced it had utilized for a allow to conduct a check for its autonomous automobiles in New York. Tech big Amazon additionally has an autonomous-vehicle initiative known as Zoox that’s slated to launch in Las Vegas later this yr.
