Ted Cruz warns Texas Republicans that his reelection will not be within the bag

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MADISON, Wisconsin — U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, warned his fellow Texas Republicans on Thursday to not take his reelection without any consideration.

“Texas is a battlefield,” Cruz stated. “It’s easy to be complacent. One of the real mistakes people make in politics is they have a recency bias. They say well, whatever things have been recently, that’s what it’s going to be forever.”

Addressing the Texas delegation breakfast on the final day of the Republican Nationwide Conference, Cruz stated he’s the largest goal for Democrats behind President Donald Trump. Cruz stated that the 2018 Senate race, the place former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, got here inside a 3-point margin, confirmed the ability of Democrats pouring cash into the race from across the nation and the shifting demographics of the state.

U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, is difficult Cruz for his seat and happening the offense in opposition to Cruz greater than O’Rourke ever did. Allred is already main in fundraising — although fundraising normally grows exponentially nearer to the election — and the Democratic Senatorial Marketing campaign Committee named Texas as one in every of its high flip alternatives.

Polls have proven the race to be shut, although Republican confidence has swelled in current weeks as Biden’s polling has plummeted and within the wake of an assassination try on Trump’s life that has rallied Republicans collectively. A current YouGov ballot commissioned by the College of Houston discovered Cruz forward with 47% in comparison with Allred with 44%. The ballot was performed between June 20 and July 1, encompassing Biden’s newest debate with Trump that dealt a blow to the highest of the Democratic ticket.

However Republican fortunes may flip if Biden steps apart because the Democratic nominee — which Cruz predicts doubtless — saying it would supply a media boon for Vice President Kamala Harris, he stated.

“I want you to envision the billions of dollars of free media where they’re going to describe Kamala as the combination of Mother Theresa, Oprah and Gandhi,” Cruz stated. “You’re going to hear that laugh so much you’re going to wake up at night.”

Cruz’s marketing campaign has made it clear for months that they’re taking the risk severely. Cruz raised over $5.6 million extra within the second quarter of this 12 months than the primary two quarters of 2018 mixed. He predicted Democrats spending between $100 billion and $150 billion to unseat him.

He’s involved different Republicans aren’t feeling the identical sense of urgency.

“Everyone says look, there’s no way you can lose. It’s Texas. You’re Republican. It’s a reelection,” Cruz stated earlier than stating that his 2018 race was the costliest in U.S. Senate historical past. “Every crazy wild-eyed leftist in New York City or Chicago or San Francisco, they go online and they give to whoever’s running against me … Look, they are coming after us.”

Cruz additionally stated he was “worried that we’re all over confident” with Republican odds up and down the poll. Echoing the final jubilation at this 12 months’s nationwide conference, Cruz stated that Republicans have been rather more unified than earlier than behind Trump whereas Democrats have been scrambling over whether or not to maintain President Joe Biden on the high of the ticket.

Allred’s marketing campaign agreed that Cruz is susceptible.

“By championing a statewide abortion ban that forces women to flee their state for lifesaving health care, abandoning Texans during a statewide freeze for a Cancun vacation and voting no on capping insulin costs — Texans know they can’t count on Ted Cruz,” Paige Hutchinson, Allred’s marketing campaign supervisor, stated in a press release. “Congressman Allred is building a broad coalition that will beat Cruz and give Texans the leadership they deserve in the Senate.”

The presidential race modifications technique this cycle relative to 2018, a midterm 12 months, Cruz stated. Democrats targeted predominantly on turnout that 12 months, when suburban voters throughout the nation elected a spate of Democrats to Congress in response to the Trump presidency. Cruz identified Democrats greater than doubled Democratic turnout that 12 months to over 4 million in comparison with 1.5 million in Sen. John Cornyn’s 2014 race.

This 12 months, Cruz stated, Trump will drive turnout, that means Republicans ought to focus extra on persuading voters.

“Those voters who had been Republicans who moved away, we’ve got to go and say, Look, how’s this working out?” Cruz stated. “Are you better off today than you were four years ago? And unless you happen to be a big tech billionaire or a Mexican drug lord … it’s been terrible.”

Cruz additionally stated suburbs can be key to successful this 12 months. Although suburbanites have traditionally voted Republican, they’ve shifted away from the celebration, delivering Arizona and George to Democrats in recent times. Each states at the moment are represented by all Democratic or impartial senators.

The overwhelming majority of Texans reside in suburban or city areas. Almost 70% of voters reside in both the Houston, North Texas, Austin or San Antonio media markets.

“We want y’all to speak to your pals, to your neighbors, to your sisters, to your co-workers

to a complete lot of ladies who in 2018 stated, ‘Gosh, I don’t like Trump’s language’,” Cruz stated. “Then Joe Biden came in and had open borders and suddenly they’ve got an MS 13 gang banger moving into the neighborhood and their kids are at risk. And they’ve got to ask how much exactly do you dislike mean tweets?”

Cruz’s speech was the keynote of Thursday’s delegation breakfast. It was a stark distinction to the final time he spoke on the breakfast in the course of the 2016 conference the place he defended not endorsing Trump on the primary stage that 12 months.

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