“A large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy and the bullet is still in the air”
– by New Deal democrat
A poster named Micah on Bluesky has written “the China tariffs were a large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy and the bullet is still in the air”
By this, he’s referring to the results of China banning the export of uncommon metals utilized in parts like microprocessors. Apparently, this has already impacted trans-Pacific transport, and will probably be affecting US home freight visitors in a number of weeks, per “Freight Alley:”
“Many truckers I’ve spoken with don’t realize how quickly container volumes have collapsed. Starting in May, port freight out of California will be almost eliminated. It’s going to be a bloodbath in dray, followed by intermodal, and then a collapse in I-20 and I-40 trucking.”
“May 2020 had 51 shipments blank sailings. Over 80 so far in April 2025. COVID will look like good times.”
To refresh, listed below are the 2 regional manufacturing reviews for April to date:
And right here is the newest (March) for residential building:
And right here is the one report on April companies to date, from the NY Fed:
These final three graphs are usually not expressions of sentiment, they’re reviews about onerous knowledge.
Nonetheless no important unfavourable results on client spending via final week:
And we noticed Wednesday that there was a lot of front-running by customers, particularly shopping for automobiles, in March.
And we additionally noticed yesterday that there was no uptick in layoffs.
That’s what it appears to be like like this week.
Keep tuned.
