Can a $2 billion funding spherical be a seed?
This once-preposterous notion turned rather less far-fetched on Thursday with the report that former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati has doubled the quantity of funding she’s looking for to lift for her startup Pondering Machines Lab, with the goal now set at $2 billion.
The report, by Enterprise Insider and based mostly on nameless sources, didn’t cite a valuation and famous that particulars might change. On condition that Murati’s startup is just a few months outdated (she left OpenAI in September), it’s truthful to marvel what’s true, what’s wishful considering, and what’s actuality. (Pondering Machines Lab declined remark for this story.)
Although Murati’s fundraising course of has attracted circus scrutiny, we all know little or no about what Pondering Machines Lab is definitely doing. The startup’s web site says that the corporate’s mission is to “make AI systems more widely understood, customizable and generally capable,” emphasizing analysis, multimodality, and security. What we do know: Murati’s staff consists of coveted names from OpenAI’s current previous, together with advisers Alec Radford and Bob McGrew, and OpenAI cofounder John Schulman (now Pondering Machines Lab’s chief scientist).
If Murati does elevate greater than $1 billion for her startup out of the gate, it gained’t be fully with out precedent: In 2024, OpenAI cofounder Ilya Sutskever accomplished a $1 billion seed elevate for his new startup, Protected Superintelligence, which has reportedly reached a $30 billion valuation.
Like “jumbo shrimp” and “living dead,” a multi-billion seed spherical has an oxymoronic high quality to it. However that oxymoron does get on the key pressure that Murati and Sutskever in the end face—one thing so new has to turn into so large with a purpose to reside as much as expectations (and enterprise math).
That is really a part of a wider pressure throughout enterprise, one which transcends even the AI growth—as extra capital flows by means of the system and valuations get increased, exit expectations get increased too. And lately, these exit expectations haven’t been met, with just a few residence run anomalies.
However as extra capital has run by means of the system, seed rounds have gotten steadily larger over time. It’s a development that the AI growth has highlighted, however actually didn’t begin. In 2015, the biggest seed deal was for femtech pharma startup Addyi, clocking in at $50 million, in response to PitchBook. In 2025 up to now, PitchBook names Lila Sciences as the biggest closed seed deal—at $200 million. A mega-seed, by the way in which, appears to be a mildly cursed factor. Taking a look at PitchBook’s checklist, there have been just a few firms I’d by no means heard of, and a few well-known flops, like Quibi, which raised greater than $1 billion earlier than its ill-fated launch.
So, it’s value being clear: A $2 billion seed spherical amid sweeping financial volatility could possibly be completely loopy, if true. However past its veracity, I believe the theoretical mega-seed does pose an essential query: What does it imply to wager that an organization will thrive amid chaos? What does it really appear to be when that occurs? In what everyone knows is an understatement—it’s not an excellent second of financial stability. And that’s larger than tech, and in addition applies on to tech. For instance, there’s proof that Trump’s tariffs (paused although they might be) might create stress on the AI growth very instantly.
However historical past reveals knockout wins are potential even in essentially the most unimaginable of instances. Take 2008: The most important IPO in that famously tough yr was Visa, which selected to go public even after the depths of the monetary disaster had been clear. The corporate popped on its first day of buying and selling, elevating about $17 billion in its public markets debut. In 2008, Visa’s market cap was $45 billion and literature from the time credit the corporate’s concentrate on funds fairly than lending for its resilience by means of the Nice Recession.
Now, 17 years later, Visa’s market cap lingers round $634 billion. In brief, Visa survived and thrived as a result of it centered on one thing enduring and totally different. We don’t but know precisely what that may appear to be for AI, however Murati seemingly has a shot to determine it out.
And if Murati does elevate a $2 billion seed fund, we’ll be compelled to ponder the oxymoron of an AI bubble that’s alive and effectively, on the eve of what could very effectively be a bona fide recession.
See you Monday,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
E mail: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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This story was initially featured on Fortune.com
