– by Invoice McBride
NOTE: The tables for lively listings, new listings and closed gross sales all embody a comparability to September 2019 for every native market (some 2019 knowledge just isn’t obtainable).
That is the third have a look at a number of early reporting native markets in September. I’m monitoring over 40 native housing markets within the US. Among the 40 markets are states, and a few are metropolitan areas. I’ll replace these tables all through the month as further knowledge is launched.
Closed gross sales in September have been principally for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage charges averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
Energetic Stock in September
Here’s a abstract of lively listings for these housing markets.
Stock was up 30.5% year-over-year. Final month stock in these markets was up 33.7% YoY. A key for home costs would be the degree of stock later this yr.
Stock is down in most of those areas in comparison with the identical month in 2019. Stock in Denver, Jacksonville and Nashville is up in comparison with September 2019.
There are important regional variations for stock, with sharp will increase within the South and Southeast (particularly in Florida and Texas).
Notes for all tables:
- New additions to tables in BOLD.
- Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Supply: Northeast Florida Affiliation of REALTORS®
- Totals don’t embody Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)
- Comparability to 2019 ONLY consists of native markets with obtainable 2019 knowledge!
New Listings in September
And here’s a desk for brand spanking new listings in September (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings have been up 5.8% year-over-year.
Final month, new listings in these markets have been up 5.9% year-over-year.
New listings at the moment are up year-over-year, however nonetheless at traditionally low ranges. New listings in most of those areas are down in comparison with September 2019 exercise (Grand Rapids and Jacksonville are up).
Closed Gross sales in September
And a desk of September gross sales.
In September, gross sales in these markets have been down 6.0% YoY. Final month, in August, these identical markets have been down 5.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Essential: There have been the identical variety of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change within the headline SA knowledge will likely be much like the NSA knowledge. Final month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 in comparison with August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted gross sales have been down lower than NSA gross sales.
Gross sales in all of those markets are down considerably in comparison with September 2019.
Final yr, the NAR reported gross sales in September 2023 at 3.98 million SAAR. This knowledge means that the September current house gross sales report will present a year-over-year decline. The cycle low was 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023. A brand new cycle low is feasible.
If gross sales have been up year-over-year, this would be the first year-over-year acquire since September 2021. After all, gross sales will nonetheless be traditionally low.
Extra native markets to come back!
