The Republican Occasion doesn’t have numerous alternatives to develop its citizens. Their older white base is dying off, suburbanites are fleeing to the Democratic Occasion, voters of shade are closely liberal, and younger voters are solidly progressive … principally.
Republicans’ sole development alternative is younger males—the worst-performing voting demographic.
And to date, they’re not performing any higher this yr.
As of early Thursday morning, roughly 13.5 million have voted already within the battleground states, based on knowledge agency TargetSmart, which works with Democratic candidates. Of these, the gender breakdown is 54% girls and 44% males, with the remainder unknown. That is a terrific signal for Democrats since girls lean left.
Of that quantity, 8.9% of early voters in battlegrounds are 18- to 29-year-olds. It is smart that youthful voters usually tend to be underrepresented within the early vote since older, busier folks and/or these with well being points will probably be extra motivated to vote early or by mail. For context, in 2020, 18- to 29-year-olds have been about 17% of the citizens, based on exit polls.
Of these early-voting 18- to 29-year-olds, girls have been forward 52-43, with the remainder unknown.
However right here is the place it will get enjoyable: Extra Democratic younger males than Republican younger males have voted—by a margin of 45-42. (Caveat: That is utilizing modeled celebration identification, which doesn’t imply these males are for certain members of the indicated celebration, however TargetSmart’s knowledge is mostly dependable.)
And the uncooked variety of younger Republican males who’re voting early? Simply 220,694 out of the full 13.5 million early battleground-state votes solid.
That’s 1.6% of the full.
These are the bizarre, younger, MAGA incel varieties whom Republicans anticipate will bail them out of their demographic cul-de-sac.
They higher hope their numbers dramatically enhance via Election Day as a result of to date, they’re barely seen.
