– by New Deal democrat
There’s no new essential knowledge once more as we speak, so let me replace a number of excessive frequency indicators during which I’m in search of indicators of weak point.
First, Redbook’s shopper retail gross sales weekly report got here out this morning, displaying a 4.7% YoY improve. This is among the 8 lowest will increase prior to now 52 weeks:
Clearly the front-running of tariff worth will increase we noticed in March and April is over. Alternatively, even a 4.7% improve YoY continues to be greater than the inflation charge.
In the meantime, he resumption of collections on scholar mortgage funds has had a giant impact not simply on these loans, but in addition on auto loans and bank card balances:
The entire cash that has to go to the resumption of funds on scholar loans is cash that isn’t accessible for different purchases.
Weekly bankruptcies have elevated prior to now a number of months, however not something out of the abnormal seasonally or in contrast with the sample prior to now a number of years:
Turning to the availability chain, the development within the up to date weekly rail intermodal knowledge exhibits a continued fall-off in contrast with final yr:
Observe that seasonally rail site visitors ought to be rising, not lowering.
However surprisingly, inbound container site visitors to the Port of LA has fully rebounded prior to now a number of weeks:
Lastly, there’s no important signal but of a YoY decline in new enterprise functions, though prior to now week excessive propensity functions have been down -0.1% YoY:
So, whereas there are some indicators of a slowdown, there is no such thing as a definitive proof of an precise downturn in financial exercise at this level.
“Recessionary Housing Report,” Indignant Bear by New Deal democrat
