Let’s face it: as every part descends into chaos, we want one thing to cling to. The 2 strongest males on this planet are combating over which one among them will get to be in control of hoovering up essentially the most cash and energy, and that doesn’t really feel nice.
Then again, the 2 strongest males on this planet are each vicious toddlers who completely lack impulse management. We would as properly watch them struggle and maintain observe of simply how a lot this break up goes to price them.
Elon Musk’s halcyon days had been brief however worthwhile, a number of transient months for him to vacuum up as many treats as doable—no-bid contracts, escaping authorities investigations, and putting in his loyalists all through the federal government.
Musk’s greatest downside, after all, is that Donald Trump is president. Trump has spent the primary months of his administration weaponizing federal companies. That’s one thing Musk was completely on board with whereas he was … no matter his official function was on the unofficial so-called Division of Authorities Effectivity.
Certainly, Musk’s DOGE boys had been instrumental in executing Trump’s mass firings, clearing the best way for Trump to set up loyalists who will probably be completely satisfied to focus on Musk.. However what the federal government arbitrarily and illegally giveth, the federal government can arbitrarily and illegally take away.
Trump reminded Musk of this on Reality Social, in one among their early salvos of their social media battle Thursday, saying that he might save billions and billions by terminating Musk’s authorities contracts. He’s not incorrect, though the cash he’s showered on Musk is a drop within the bucket in comparison with the catastrophic quantity Trump goes so as to add to the deficit.
Trump can—and sure will—hurt Musk in 3 ways. He can yank Musk’s current authorities contracts, he can restart all company investigations into Musk’s companies, and he can ice Musk out of offers that had been within the works. All advised, Musk might be out billions, and that’s not even counting how this struggle is shredding Tesla’s inventory value.
SpaceX could be out $22 billion
SpaceX, Musk’s personal area firm with a nasty behavior of getting rockets explode and rain particles everywhere in the planet, had been awarded $6 billion to launch army satellites into orbit. The deal would have given SpaceX the bulk of all these army contracts till 2036.
If Trump pulls this contract, that’s an actual blow to SpaceX in that the marketplace for personal area firms, whereas very profitable, could be very small, so Musk isn’t going to have the ability to simply make up that $6 billion elsewhere.
NASA had additionally awarded SpaceX a unique launch contract, this one for $100 million for telescope launch companies. Whereas $100 million is nothing to the richest man on the planet, it’s enjoyable to consider him shedding it nonetheless.
These are simply the latest treats SpaceX acquired, nonetheless. Reuters estimates that Trump might nuke about $22 billion in authorities contracts with the corporate.
Tesla might lose extra than simply its inventory worth
It’s harder to calculate how a lot Trump’s match of pique goes to price Tesla, nevertheless it positively goes to run at the least 10 figures.
Even earlier than this breakup, Tesla had already suffered a loss when the federal government determined to not give it a $400 million contract to offer armored automobiles for the army.
It’s not clear what number of contracts Tesla has with the federal government. The Related Press reported that Tesla has obtained $41.9 million in authorities contracts through the years. Tesla additionally makes billions every year promoting regulatory credit, a ridiculous association the place governments give Tesla “credits”—aka cash—for making electrical vehicles. Tesla then has an extra of these credit that it may well promote to different carmakers in order that they’ll all fake this in some way reduces air pollution. Tesla made near $3 billion in 2024 alone by doing this.
Tesla will even lose the unbelievable showmanship and gross sales expertise of each Trump and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
Elon, please benefit from the full consideration of the executive state
Simply as Trump wanted to win the presidency so as to not go to jail, Musk wanted Trump to win the presidency so as to not must pay the federal government tens of millions in fines.
When Trump took workplace in 2025, Musk’s firms had been underneath investigation by at the least 11 federal companies. Spectacular! Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) estimated that getting out from underneath these might permit Musk to duck at the least $2.37 billion. Most of that’s about Tesla, which confronted $1.8 billion in penalties and a legal investigation over Tesla’s autopilot options.
Whereas Musk was in Trump’s good graces, he might depend on authorities companies to make these investigations go away, however now that he’s not, it’s possible Legal professional Basic Pam Bondi can be completely satisfied to have the Division of Justice resume scrutiny of Musk.
Trump has largely defanged the Securities and Change Fee, however that doesn’t imply he can’t get the SEC to keep in mind that Musk didn’t file a well timed report of his Twitter inventory purchases whereas he was on the brink of purchase the corporate. The SEC may additionally recollect it was investigating Musk’s creepy brain-chip firm, Neuralink, after Musk lied in regards to the horrific deaths ensuing from the corporate’s experiments on monkeys.
It’s not simply that there are current investigations—Trump additionally has the ability to analyze Musk and his firms for something he needs. That govt order goes to be unbelievable.
Wither the Golden Dome?
The largest potential hit to Musk’s backside line is shedding out on the large pile of cash that Trump goes to gentle on fireplace to construct the Golden Dome, a missile defend that the majority positively is not going to work. SpaceX had partnered with Peter Thiel’s Palantir and Palmer Luckey’s Anduril, the worst doable blunt rotation, to construct this boondoggle. Estimates of the entire price vary wherever from $119 billion to $6.4 trillion.
The Home had tucked near $25 billion for the dome into the 2025 funds. Higher but, earlier than Musk’s fall from grace, the venture seemed prefer it was set to pull on for years, reaching solely a demonstration section by 2028. The query right here is whether or not Thiel and Luckey will depart Musk bleeding on the battlefield and push ahead to get that paper, or depart with him.
Whereas Trump has a number of methods to assault Musk, Musk actually has just one device in his toolbox: cash. Nonetheless, Musk has a staggering sum of money, and he’s simply high-quality spending that cash on issues that can damage Trump. The person purchased the presidency for the comparatively low value of $250 million or so, and he can simply spend 10 instances that if he decides to again one other horse.
God, we’re going to have to consider Ron DeSantis once more
As issues with Trump bitter, Musk could flip his attentions again to his first selection for 2024, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the least charismatic particular person alive. DeSantis, ever the opportunist, had his PAC instantly ship a fundraising electronic mail defending Musk. Apparently DeSantis is inclined to overlook and forgive how badly Musk screwed up his marketing campaign launch when Twitter fully failed throughout the Areas streaming occasion asserting his run.
Time to study which Home and Senate Republicans are on the market
Even earlier than this messy public spat, Home Republicans had been working to assuage Musk with the intention to ensure that he stored the money spigot absolutely open and to make sure he doesn’t use his prodigious fortune towards them.
Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, is certainly down with Musk, saying, “I love what Elon’s doing, and I hope he keeps doing it.” Nicely, after all Gonzales thinks that, as Musk gave him $800,000 final 12 months.
Senators Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and Thom Tillis had aligned themselves with Musk’s criticisms of Trump’s Massive Lovely Catastrophe, nevertheless it’s not clear but in the event that they’re open to killing the invoice for the best value.
What if Musk goes full Third Means?
Even if the American political system is on no account well-suited for a 3rd get together to succeed on a big scale, Musk is already musing about beginning a brand new political get together. After all, he did it within the stupidest means doable: a ballot on X.
There’s all the time been a cult of persona round Musk, however he’s misplaced fairly a little bit of luster currently. Tesla is a punchline, the place it was as soon as seen as an unstoppable juggernaut led by a genius. Moreover, Musk made himself the face of brutal authorities cuts. It seems that firing a whole bunch of hundreds of individuals whereas destroying the federal government doesn’t make you notably common at events. That doesn’t imply that Musk can’t throw some huge cash at this dumb thought simply to make Trump depressing.
