Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up crucial polling traits or information factors you have to find out about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Day by day Kos reporting, plus a vibe verify on a pattern that’s driving politics.
“They are wrong. There is nothing to sustain that.”
That’s what former President Joe Biden stated throughout an look on “The View” in early Could, denying widespread experiences that he suffered stark cognitive decline throughout his last years in workplace. However Individuals simply aren’t shopping for it.
New information from YouGov finds that Individuals consider not solely that Biden’s well being and age restricted his capacity to hold out presidential duties but additionally that Democrats hid his well being info from the general public. And these points reduce to the guts of a present downside going through the Democratic Get together: How can it regain credibility with voters—together with many Democrats—who simply don’t belief the occasion proper now?
Simply 6% of Individuals suppose Biden’s age and well being had no impact in anyway on his capacity to hold out presidential duties, in line with a brand new ballot YouGov carried out for The Economist. Eighty-six p.c of Individuals suppose his capacity to be president was at the least considerably restricted by his age and well being, together with 58% who suppose he was “severely limited” by it.
“The Democratic Party at large didn’t buy into it,” Biden additionally claimed on “The View,” pointing to his victory within the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries, which had been primarily uncontested.
However even earlier than his disastrous June 2024 debate with Donald Trump, which culminated with the sitting president exiting the presidential race, Biden’s age and well being frightened Democrats.
In a February 2024 ballot from YouGov, solely 21% of Democrats stated his well being and age wouldn’t restrict his capacity to hold out presidential duties. A better share (24%) stated he could be “severely limited.” And in a New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot fielded that very same month, 56% of Democrats and 59% of voters who backed Biden within the 2020 election stated Biden was too outdated to be an efficient president.
Different polls from earlier than the talk present comparable numbers. The truth is, in a YouGov ballot from July 2022—two years earlier than he dropped out of the 2024 race—solely about 1 in 4 Democrats stated Biden’s well being and age had no impact on his capacity to be president.
And the numbers have solely gotten worse for Biden. The newest YouGov/Economist ballot finds that solely 12% of Democrats suppose his age and well being had no impact in any respect on his capacity to be president, and 1 in 3 Democrats suppose his well being and age severely restricted him.
The difficulty has at all times been there for Democrats. And past that, Democrats aren’t the one individuals who vote in elections. The overwhelming majority of registered voters (73%) in February 2024 thought Biden was too outdated to be an efficient president, in line with the New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot.
Why does this matter when Trump, a conspicuously deranged man, is the sitting president? Let’s be clear: Trump’s age and cognitive well being are completely the extra essential story proper now. And Individuals are frightened about it. In one other new YouGov ballot, simply 31% of Individuals suppose Trump’s age and well being don’t have any impression in any respect on his capacity to be president. One other 29% thinks these issues “severely limit” him, and that features a majority of Democrats (58%) and a plurality of independents (29%).
Nonetheless, the subject of Biden’s well being and the way Democrats dealt with it aren’t simply problems with the previous. In addition they threaten how the general public views the Democratic Get together at massive.
Most Individuals (57%) suppose that Democrats hid details about Biden’s well being from the general public whereas he was president, in line with the newest YouGov/Economist ballot. That features not only one in 4 Democrats but additionally greater than 1 in 2 independents.
After all, if there was a cover-up, it clearly wasn’t an excellent one. Simply take a look at these pre-debate polls.
Both manner, a large portion of the voters the Democratic Get together depends on to win elections simply watched occasion officers spend years claiming that Biden was as sharp as ever and in a position to tackle one other presidential marketing campaign, in the face of sturdy proof in any other case, all whereas they themselves had been frightened about it. Is it actually a shock the occasion now faces such horrible favorability scores?
Solely 38% of Individuals have a positive view of the Democratic Get together, whereas 60% have an unfavorable view, in line with the Pew Analysis Heart. That places the occasion 22 share factors underwater, in contrast with the Republican Get together, which is 13 factors underwater. Nonetheless, extra tellingly, simply 75% of Democrats have a positive view of their very own occasion—the bottom share Pew has discovered up to now six years.
Speaking by way of what occurred with Biden—what the occasion ignored, what it bought mistaken—is an efficient manner for Democrats to regain credibility within the eyes of voters, to allow them to know that they’re accomplished protecting their ears, and that they need to hear once more.
Any updates?
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The “big, beautiful” tax invoice that Home Republicans handed not too long ago would intestine meals help for low-income Individuals, and that’s bought even some Republicans vocally pissed. However a brand new information mannequin from Information for Progress finds simply how unpopular it’s: In each Home district within the nation, lower than 15% of voters help cuts to the Supplemental Diet Help Program.
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The Trump administration is narrowing entry to COVID-19 boosters—a lot for conservatives making an attempt to say the slogan “my body, my choice”—however a variety of Individuals may not discover. Seventy p.c of Individuals haven’t gotten a COVID-19 vaccine up to now 12 months, in line with a brand new YouGov/Economist ballot. And solely 33% need to get a booster if one is accredited this fall.
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In late April, Canada’s Liberal Get together gained an electoral victory everybody had anticipated them to lose handily—that’s, till Trump returned to the White Home and promptly began attacking the nation. And Liberals’ pushback to Trump appears to have helped them: 68% of Canadians who voted within the election stated Trump performed a job of their vote, in line with a newly launched YouGov survey. Eleven p.c stated he was their high concern when voting, and one other 21% stated he was a significant concern.
Vibe verify
Nonetheless a lot voters got here to doubt Biden’s capacity to hold out his presidential duties, they nonetheless gave him a a lot greater job approval ranking than they presently give Trump.
In keeping with Civiqs, 46% of registered voters accredited and 48% disapproved of how Biden was dealing with his presidency as of Could 29, 2021, making for a web approval ranking of -2 share factors. In the meantime, on Could 29 of this 12 months, 43% approve and 54% disapprove of Trump—a web approval ranking of -11.
