Pennsylvania Senate race tightens, Oz eats into Fetterman’s lead, poll shows

The race for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania is tightening, according to a new poll that finds Democrat John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz has shrunk to a statistical tie.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Pennsylvania voters shows the race within the 3-point margin of error, with 45% of respondents backing Mr. Fetterman and 43% backing Mr. Oz.

Another 8% of voters are still on the fence, and 2% plan to vote for someone else.

While Mr. Fetterman has maintained the lead in polls throughout the race, the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Mr. Oz has whittled the Democrat’s lead down to 4 percentage points, from 9 points in mid-August.

Mr. Oz and national Republicans over that time have raised questions over whether Mr. Fetterman is fit for the job after he suffered a stroke in May that sidelined him for months.

They also have hammered home the message to voters that Mr. Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, is soft on crime and warned his “far-left” brand of politics is out of sync with most voters.

The line of attack appears to be working.

The Emerson poll showed the share of voters who say Mr. Fetterman’s stroke makes no difference in their vote has dropped since August, from 68% to 59%. Plus, the share of voters who say it makes them less likely to back him has climbed from 14% to 19%.

Mr. Fetterman’s nonstop push to cast Mr. Oz as a New Jersey carpetbagger, meanwhile, appears to have lost some of its punch.

In the survey, 47% of voters said it makes no difference that Mr. Oz recently moved to the state, 39% said it makes them less likely to support him and 14% say it makes them more likely to support him.

The same poll last month showed that 51% of voters said Oz’s New Jersey residence makes them less likely they will support him.

The race, like others across the country, features a dramatic gender gap. Mr. Oz leads among men by 6 points, and Mr. Fetterman has a 7-point edge among women.

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